As polls near, the centre still shines bright in BJP. But are state leaders getting blacked out?

BJP leaders question the phasing out of a robust second rung, and fear this will eventually tell on the party – particularly as this puts it apart from rivals.

There is no lack of communication, with the BJP high command continuously interacting with state units over action plans and outreach programmes. However, leaders say that many a time, this is a one-way exercise, with the central command taking decisions unilaterally, including on strategies in their area.

This has coincided with the digitisation push, which has ended up taking intermediary leaders out of the picture. While earlier they built a network of give-and-take through projects and welfare schemes, systems can now be directly monitored by the Centre.

Down the ranks, communication channels, too, are limited. The Indian Express had earlier reported how Union ministers and MPs fielded for the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections got to know of their nomination only 48 hours before the announcement. Recently, supporters of former Jharkhand chief minister Raghubar Das barely concealed their surprise over his sudden transfer as governor to Odisha.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assertion recently that ministers who have served multiple terms in the Rajya Sabha should contest the Lok Sabha elections has also set off a nervous guessing game. As the clock ticks towards 2024, a leader hopes they will come to know in advance, so that they can nurture the constituency allotted to them.

Some leaders point out that the Madhya Pradesh list with such big names, without any prior warning, meant that discontent spilled into the open.

In Rajasthan, after initial hesitance, the central leadership went out of its way to oblige former chief minister Vasundhara Raje. Sources said a number of her supporters were accommodated in the second list after a survey showed the damage an angry Raje might cause.

“The party did not want to repeat what happened in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka,” a party leader says, referring to the BJP’s poll defeats in the two states where the state units were divided.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has come around to accepting the importance of CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, after suggesting that the “fatigue factor” over him lay at the heart of the anti-incumbency against the party government, and that sidelining him was the way around it.

A senior party leader says there was a clear plan behind the fielding of the big guns for the Assembly polls. “They are not contesting in comfortable seats, but in those where the BJP has lost more than once,” he says, but admits that the party has not been able to communicate this effectively to cadre.

While initially, senior leaders including PM Modi refrained from mentioning Chouhan in their speeches, there has been a course correction. Recently, Modi lauded the initiatives of the state government, mentioning Chouhan by name.

In Chhattisgarh, too, the BJP has fallen back again on Raman Singh, under whom the party suffered a defeat last time, after realising that no party leader matched his stature in the state. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who had earlier said that “every vote in Chhattisgarh should be cast in the name of Modi”, was present when Singh filed his nomination from Rajnandgaon last week.

In Telangana, the BJP is in the midst of amending its strategy too, after the national leadership’s attempts to extend tacit support to the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) appeared to be not going down well. Sources said that party surveys had shown that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s charge that the BRS, AIMIM and BJP are working together for the November 30 elections was getting some traction.

In his speeches, Rahul keeps asking why there are no cases against BRS or AIMIM leaders, unlike leaders of every other Opposition party. Some BJP leaders say the raids and arrests by the Enforcement Directorate and CBI could be hurting too, with the charge of “vindictive politics” hitting home with some sections.

BJP leaders are also watching with apprehension the Congress push for a caste census. While the BJP is confident that its hold on OBCs endures – helped by Modi himself being an OBC – it has “tied the hands” of the BJP when it comes to other communities like Brahmins, with the party wary of how an overture towards them might be interpreted.