New Delhi | Updated: October 12, 2024 07:32 PM IST
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Of the 12 seats where the INLD-BSP combine finished third, securing more votes than the victory margin, only four had the Congress losing to the BJP. (Express Photo by Tashi Tobgyal)
The recent Haryana elections saw the Congress and BJP pitching for two separate vote blocs – the first hoping for Jat-Dalit votes, and the latter for non-Jat OBCs. While the Congress got its calculations wrong, the damage did not come from at least the two fronts party supporters were fearing – the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, and Jannayak Janata Party (JJP)-Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) or ASPKR combine.
While the two fronts also eyed the same Jat-Dalit vote combination, an analysis of the results shows that neither made much impact.
Of the 12 seats where the INLD-BSP combine finished third, securing more votes than the victory margin, only four had the Congress losing to the BJP. In eight, the Congress managed to score a victory over the BJP.
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The parties individually too fared poorly. While the JJP failed to win a single seat and its chief Dushyant Chautala ended up in the fifth spot in his bastion of Uchana Kalan, its parent party INLD won only two seats. Their Dalit-vote bank allies BSP and ASPKR, respectively, failed to open their accounts.
The collective vote share of the INLD-BSP in Haryana stood at 5.96%. This was far better than the JJP-ASPKR share of 1.05%, with the JJP bearing the brunt of the anger over its tie-up with the BJP after winning 10 seats in 2019. While its vote share stood at 0.9%, the ASPKR, making its debut in Haryana in a bid to expand its base beyond Uttar Pradesh, got only 0.15% of the votes.
Both the INLD and JJP are led by scions of the Devi Lal family, which has had tremendous influence on Jat votes. The BSP, led by former UP CM Mayawati, has secured a significant number of Dalit votes in the past in Haryana polls.
The seats where the BJP lost and the Congress won, with the INLD-BSP alliance getting more votes than the victory margin, included Adampur, Fatehabad, Hathin, Julana, Kalanwali, Loharu, Naraingarh and Sadhura. Olympic wrestler Vinesh Phogat was the Congress candidate from Julana.
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The seats where the Congress lost and the BJP won, with the INLD-BSP alliance getting more votes than the victory margin, included Assandh, Barwala, Narwana and Yamunanagar.
The JJP-ASPKR finished third and got more votes than the victory margin in only one seat, Dabwali, where the INLD’s Aditya Devilal defeated Congress nominee Amit Sihag by a narrow margin of 610 votes. JJP candidate Digvijay Singh Chautala finished here with 35,261 votes.
In two seats, Jagadhri and Panchkula, where the Congress defeated the BJP, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidates finished third and got more votes than the winning margin. The BJP had won both the seats in 2019.
The AAP contested in Haryana separately after talks for an alliance with the Congress failed.
Lalmani is an Assistant Editor with The Indian Express, and is based in New Delhi. He covers politics of the Hindi Heartland, tracking BJP, Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD and other parties based in UP, Bihar and Uttarakhand. Covered the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, 2019 and 2024; Assembly polls of 2012, 2017 and 2022 in UP along with government affairs in UP and Uttarakhand. ... Read More