The 10 big issues in the Madhya Pradesh polls: Hindutva to OBCs to jobs

With Madhya Pradesh’s longest-serving Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan seen as facing the “fatigue factor”, the BJP has refrained from projecting him as CM face. Plus, it has brought in seven big names from the centre to contest the Assembly polls, who are all now seen as contenders for CM — including three Union ministers, four MPs and one national general secretary. Chouhan has tried to reinvent himself from the affable “mama (maternal uncle)” to a hardline “bulldozer mama”, as he doubles down on issues like religious conversion.

2. Hindutva

At Jan Ashirwad (public blessings) rallies, the BJP is playing the Hindutva card, focusing its attack on the Congress over the Sanatan Dharma controversy. On September 14, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the INDIA bloc was trying to destroy Sanatan Dharma. The BJP has also been highlighting its development of religious tourist circuits, such as the Mahakal Lok corridor in Ujjain and the Adi Shankaracharya statue in Omkareshwar.

The Congress is also playing “soft” Hindutva, with its CM face Kamal Nath projecting himself as a Hanuman devotee. This includes presiding over Hanuman-themed events, erecting a massive Hanuman statue on his turf Chhindwara, inviting the right-wing Bajrang Sena to merge into the Congress, and playing host to controversial Bageshwar Dham chief priest Dhirendra Shastri.

3. Factionalism

The voice of discontent within the state BJP has grown with every candidate list the party has released, even as Union Home Minister Amit Shah and senior BJP leaders troubleshoot to present a united face before the elections.

Meanwhile, the Congress has been trying to take advantage of this factionalism — mostly between loyalists of Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia and BJP veterans — and weaning away its leaders. In the Gwalior-Chambal region, the Congress attempts have been led by its senior leaders like former CM Digvijaya Singh and his son Jaivardhan Singh.

Former MP Bodh Singh Bhagat, Kolaras MLA Virendra Raghuvanshi, Scindia loyalist Samandar Patel, Shivpuri stalwart Baijnath Singh Yadav and district vice-president Rakesh Kumar Gupta have all joined the Congress in the past few months.

4. OBC factor

With their promise of a caste census, the Opposition has ensured that the Other Backward Classes (OBC) factor is expected to dominate the polls. OBCs make up around 50% of the population in MP — a substantial bloc that is believed to be the BJP’s core votebase. Before Chouhan, OBC leaders Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur have been its CM. PM Modi’s OBC origins have further helped the party make strong inroads into the community.

The Congress hopes to improve its chances among OBCs with the caste census demand. It has also sought an OBC quota within women’s reservation.

Kamal Nath has been reminding people about the OBC reservation hike to 27% in government jobs through the Public Service Commission by his government in 2019. The High Court had struck this down later.

To add to the BJP’s woes, former CM Uma Bharti, who has been unhappy within the BJP, is also demanding OBC reservation within the women’s quota.

5. Women

At an event in Burhanpur on October 4, CM Chouhan washed the feet of two women, who in turn showered him with petals. The messaging was clear, given that Chouhan has gambled big on schemes for women to propel him back to power, the latest being 35% quota in some government jobs.

According to the EC, of the 5.52 crore voters in the state, 2.67 crore women, making them almost the same numbers as men.

Former CM Kamal Nath has also promised similar women-centric policies. His party is also attacking the BJP over crimes against women, claiming the state tops in such crimes, after a video of a minor rape victim went viral recently, showing her walking door-to-door in Ujjain without receiving any help. The BJP’s counter is that it has enacted strict laws with death penalty for convicts in cases of raping minors.

6. Tribals

On October 5, PM Modi celebrated the 500th birth anniversary of tribal queen Rani Durgavati, and has been singing her praises in multiple poll events. This is a well thought-out move as the BJP attributes its 2018 loss largely to its poor showing in tribal-dominated areas.

Tribals account for over 21% of the state’s population, with 47 Assembly seats reserved for STs. Of its 52 districts, the state has six “fully tribal” districts, while another 15 are classified “partially tribal”. The Bhil community accounts for nearly 40% of the state’s ST population, followed by the Gonds, with 34%. In the 2018 polls, the BJP could win only 16 of the ST seats, as against the Congress’s 30.

The Congress is attacking the government by highlighting incidents of atrocities against tribals. In July, it had latched on to the case of a man with alleged BJP links urinating on a tribal man in Sidhi district. This set-off a political firestorm, with CM Chouhan having to intervene and wash the victim’s feet.

7. Dalits

In back-to-back visits to Sagar district in Bundelkhand, PM Modi underscored the importance of the Dalit votebank to the BJP, when he laid the foundation stone of a Rs 100 crore Sant Ravidas temple, and announced several other development projects. SCs account for around 17% of the state’s population with 35 out of 230 Assembly seats reserved for them. Among them, followers of Sant Ravidas are believed to be the largest chunk.

The SC voters are expected to play a decisive role in Bundelkhand, Gwalior-Chambal and Vindhya regions. In the 2018 Assembly polls, the BJP had won 18 of these seats, with 17 going to the Congress. In the 2013 elections, the BJP won 28 SC reserved seats, while the Congress got 4. To consolidate SC votes, while the BJP is banking on development and celebration of Dalit icons, the Congress is trying to show that the state tops in atrocities against Dalits.

8. Corruption

Borrowing from its Karnataka playbook, the Congress is trying to corner the BJP over corruption, calling the Chouhan government a “50% commission” one. In every campaign speech, Kamal Nath alleges that there is “no limit to corruption”. “Paise do, kaam lo (give money, take jobs)” is the Congress slogan. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has claimed 250 scams in 18 years of the BJP government in the state.

The BJP counter takes a cue from PM Modi’s June 27 speech in Bhopal, when he said that Opposition leaders “collectively guarantee scams worth at least Rs 20 lakh crore”, and highlighting the Congress’s track record at the Centre, involving allegations of scams, in coal and 2G spectrum allocations, Agustawestland, etc.

9. Farmer distress

With 70% of the population engaged in farming, both the Congress and BJP have their eyes set on this important group. Farmers have been facing problems like low crop prices, high input costs, erratic weather, crop damage, debt and lack of infrastructure support.

In 2018, the Congress had grabbed power by capitalising on farmers’ discontent and sympathy for farmers killed in police firing in Mandsaur in 2017, while protesting low crop prices. It’s also highlighting pro-farmer policies it had implemented during its brief, 15-month tenure, such as a farm-loan waiver, free electricity and monthly allowance for women. It has promised 37 lakh farmers free power for pumps up to 5 hp capacity, and withdrawal of cases against protesting farmers; against the BJP’s lure of schemes like the Mukhyamantri Kisan Kalyan Yojana, and the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (for housing).

10. Unemployment

In her Jabalpur speech on June 12, Priyanka said the BJP government had given only 21 government jobs in MP in the last three years, saying she was herself surprised by the low number. Data on joblessness presented in the state Assembly in March showed 39,93,149 people (37,80,679 educated and 1,12,470 uneducated) had registered themselves at employment offices in the state.

The Congress has also claimed that “10,298 students and 6,999 unemployed persons have died by suicide in the state” under BJP rule.

To tackle unemployment, the BJP is banking on schemes such as Seekho Kamao (learn and earn) for unemployed youths that offer stipends based on qualification. It is also relying upon state government data showing it had “provided over 61,000 government jobs in the last three years”, claiming the number would be higher if contractual staff were taken into account.

Chouhan has also promised that if his party retains power, it would provide a job to each household.