Russian President Vladimir Putin is on his first state visit to India since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. The visit has already ruffled feathers in diplomatic circles.
The heads of French, German and British diplomatic missions in India, mounted a scathing attack on Russia for sabotaging peace in Europe. The Russian Ambassador struck back, justifying the cause of the war and Europe’s lack of seriousness towards ending it. The MEA was caught off guard by the diplomatic battle being fought through the Indian print media.
India’s struggle has been real, often exposing its limits in balancing relations with the US, the EU, and Russia. Consequently, commentators and the government have gone on the offensive to defend ties with Russia. But now, it is high time the Kremlin took the onus for its actions that have undermined India-Russia relations.
Four years since the invasion, Russia stands isolated in the international economic order. Its major export to the world, energy, is largely substitutable. Neither is the Russian economy deeply integrated with the world economy. That leaves Russia extremely vulnerable to economic coercion.
Even its closest friend, China, which holds substantial influence, couldn’t pull Russia out of the mess. Eventually, even Beijing had to halt the settlement of payments owing to fears of secondary sanctions. The majority of Russia’s trade with China is still being settled via underground channels. If anything, Russia has reduced itself to selling off its goods and energy at an extremely discounted price to the world.
India is a far less influential economic power than China, evident in its reluctant but eventual acquiescence to US sanctions recently. To expect New Delhi to carry the burden of bilateral ties is unfair. Russia needs to understand these limits.
Ending the war in Ukraine alone is not sufficient. The terms of the peace are equally important, as they will continue to weigh on India-Russia relations. If the terms of any agreement are viewed as unfair, Russia’s integration with Europe and the world will be severely hampered, and it will remain indefinitely isolated. This doesn’t bode well for New Delhi, as both India (owing to its integration with the US-led West) and Moscow (owing to its lack of integration with the West) become susceptible to coercion by the West. And again, India might have to yield.
Thus, the extent of India-Russia economic ties will have to be commensurate with Russia’s economic ties to the West. The room for expanding economic ties with Russia is limited to the war ending, and that too on fair terms.
This brings me to the last point: India-US relations. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been a vocal critic of India’s membership of the Quad and its relationship with the US. But if Moscow expects India to play cool with its relationship with China, it needs to lend the same courtesy to the India-US relationship. Perhaps, there is a need to reiterate to the Russians the logic of the US-India strategic partnership. The proximity to the West is a product of China’s enmity with India. By no means is it directed at undermining Russia per se.
Nevertheless, Russia is an indispensable partner and friend to India. But the consequences of Russia’s actions cannot be left for India to deal with. Russia must act in a manner that relieves India of the disproportionate burden to defend and sustain the bilateral relationship.
The writer is with Takshashila’s Indo-Pacific Studies programme
