Who’s the mastermind?

Gehlot casts a spell

Magic is his family business and Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has given an impressive performance in the recent state assembly polls. Not only did the Congress win but some half-a-dozen of Gehlot’s party rivals, who could have been contenders for the chief minister’s post, were defeated. Even the presidents of the Youth Congress, Mahila Congress, NSUI and the PCC chief have lost. While some irate rivals grumble privately about black magic, Jats in Rajasthan charge that Gehlot’s Mali community has voted strategically to ensure that no serious Jat contender was victorious although many not-so-prominent Jats have managed to win on Congress tickets.

A closer look at Rajasthan’s results suggests that this was not a clear-cut victory for the Congress, even if it secured a few more seats than the BJP. What emerges is the disturbing phenomenon of people voting increasingly on caste rather than on party lines. The biggest beneficiary of this is the Meena community which has monopolised the Scheduled Tribe seats as well as a number of general seats. The Congress was the biggest beneficiary of Meena solidarity. The BSP took advantage of caste rivalries in selecting candidates, thus increasing its vote base.

Two birds with one stone

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s humility should not be mistaken for weakness. In his own quiet way Chauhan knows how to settle scores with detractors. His long time rival and predecessor as chief minister Uma Bharati lost the Tikamgarh seat to the Congress’s Yadvendra Singh. But few noticed that the BJP candidate Akhand Pratap Singh, a minister in Chouhan’s cabinet, lost his deposit. It looks as if BJP supporters voted for the Congress candidate. As a minister Akhand Pratap Singh had become a thorn in the CM’s side.

Through the same spectrum M. Karunanidhi once described the communists as the DMK’s natural ally but the recent CPI(M)-AIADMK tie-up indicates there is no permanence in political alignments. The AIADMK and CPI(M) now hold daily meetings to ensure floor coordination in the Parliament. Both have targeted Communication Minister A Raja for the spectrum scam. The CPI(M), in fact, is distributing booklets charging Raja with defrauding the exchequer of some Rs 1,00,000 crore. Jayalalithaa, who is considered soft towards Hindutva, weighed her options carefully before joining forces with the Marxists. Her logic was that if the AIADMK had not aligned with the CPI (M), the latter would have gravitated towards actor Rajnikant. The CPI(M), meanwhile, was furious with the DMK for letting it down on the nuclear deal and shrewdly calculated that in any case the DMK’s electoral fortunes are waning.

While conceding two Lok Sabha seats to the CPI (M) in a potential alliance, Jayalalithaa has made no commitment for a post election tie-up. AIADMK leaders point out that even Prakash Karat agreed that present there is no Third Front.

No lame duck

The names S.M. Krishna, Veerappa Moily and Montek Singh Ahluwallia are still making the rounds as possible replacements for P. Chidambaram as finance minister. But in all probability there will be no new finance minister. Any FM appointed at this late stage, with just six months before the general election, would be a complete lame duck. Particularly as he would at best seek a mere vote-on-account and not present a regular budget.