While most opinion polls have been constantly revising downwards their estimates of the NDA’s tally, Arun Nehru has kept his figures fairly constant and confidently predicts that the NDA will win around 289 seats. Nehru say he makes his predictions on the basis of the inputs he receives from different sources. Nehru’s column on psephology and politics appears in numerous newspapers and he even anchors a TV show Nehru ke number where he pontificates on poll strategy.
Curiously, whenever Nehru’s political acumen has been put to practical application it has failed miserably. As Rajiv Gandhi’s one-time political advisor, it was Nehru who suggested that the lock on the Babri Masjid be opened as a sop to win the Hindu vote in the 1989 election. His strategy succeeded in alienating Muslims from the Congress for a long time to come, while the BJP reaped the benefit of the Hindu votes in UP. In the last parliamentary poll, Nehru stood from Rae Bareli on a BJP ticket and was confident of victory against Satish Sharma, predicting the BJP was going to sweep UP. He ended up with egg on his face and stood fourth, behind the Congress, SP and BSP.
Modi-fi(r)ed
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi had his own take on why the BJP’s popularity was slipping in the poll predictions. He was convinced that the last-minute attempt to appease minorities had put the backs up of the hardcore BJP voters. Modi offered his services to enthuse the Hindutva voter and UP BJP president Vinay Katiyar, a VHP activist, jumped at the offer. But when the Prime Minister’s trouble-shooters in Lucknow heard belatedly that Modi was arriving in Lucknow they were furious, fearing that their frantic efforts to save the situation in UP might go up in smoke due to Modi’s intemperate remarks.
In view of the media publicity, Modi could not be sent home. Instead he was given strict instructions to keep away from his inflammatory speeches and disparaging references against the minorities, Gandhis and Mian Musharraf. A defanged Modi, claiming he spoke on behalf of 100 crore Indians, confined himself largely to speeches on development, which were a damp squib for the audiences and for newsmen looking for incendiary copy. The party’s official line was that Modi had been called to rustle up support among the OBC Teli, since he is a Teli. Somebody even seems to have instructed Modi to remove the pop-up picture of himself as part of the triumvirate with Vajpayee and Advani on his website.
Polls won’t part
After the December 13 attack on Parliament, the government has invested some Rs 75 crore on new security devices utilising the latest technology. Instead of the old-fashioned speed-breakers and mobile gates to prevent the entry and exit of unauthorised intruders, four feet high iron poles have been installed at strategic points of entry. The poles are normally at ground level but with the push of a remote control button they spring up and block entry or exit.
Last week, Dy PM L K Advani’s cavalcade wanted to take a short cut through Parliament House but was stopped by six pillars blocking his path. After heavy rain in the Capital last week, something went awry with the control system and the pillars got stuck upright and could not be pushed back into the ground. Advani had per force to change his route.
Pulling their punches
It is not just the BJP but all political parties which have come to realise that spewing personal insults on political rivals backfires with voters. When the impetuous Priyanka Gandhi in Rae Bareli drew attention to the ‘‘old and physically weak’’ BJP leadership, a section of the Congress feared that the BJP might try to project the Gandhi siblings as being disrespectful to their elders. Her more circumspect brother Rahul was quick to assure that he had highest regard for Vajpayee and his family tradition was not to speak against political rivals.
Questionable tactics
Ram Jethmalani’s campaign in Lucknow against Prime Minister Vajpayee ended in a whimper. Jethmalani’s small band of followers from Delhi complain that the Congress did nothing to help them. A section of the Lucknow Congress in turn accuses the lawyer of a triple-cross. The point in fielding Jethmalani was not his vote garnering abilities but the belief that he could dent the PM’s image by a daily dose of embarrassing questions. After all Jethmalani had managed to sully Rajiv Gandhi’s image by his innuendo-laden questions during the Bofors controversy. But this time Jethmalani’s questions fell flat, dwelling on known issues like the Telgi case, the Babri Masjid dispute and the Gujarat riots and did not, as expected, reveal anything new. Most Lucknow newspapers stopped carrying his list of queries long before the polling day.
Backseat guests
At President Abdul Kalam’s request, a special show of director Amir Raza’s play Legends of Ram was staged. The organisers reserved the first four rows exclusively for Rashtrapati Bhavan employees and their families. Other dignitaries who had been invited for the performance, as for instance, Justice A S Anand, Chairperson of the National Human Rights Commission, had to sit in the back rows behind fidgety children and hassled mothers.