Where 2002 is years away from 1996 for NC

Kupwara (Constituency No. 2) The NC’s sitting MLA, Saifullah Mir, is under threat of being swamped by an intense anti-incumbency wave. In 1996, the poll percentage here was 25.97%. Mir won by the grand margin of 1,000 votes over his nearest rival, Choudhary Salam-ud-din of Congress. In fact, the entire opposition polled 62.94%.

But it’s not just Mir’s legitimacy at stake here. The murmurs of opposition are building up even within the party, and have only got stronger when former minister and NC senior Ghulam Qadir Mir’s name was floated for the constituency. Qadir Mir’s name was dropped despite all the right vibes from NC president Omar Abdullah. Result: Qadir Mir is said to be thinking of contesting the elections as an independent, which will spilt the NC vote bank.

Lolab (Constituency No. 3) It’s almost the same story in Kupwara’s neighbour, with a different cast of characters. The protagonist here is sitting MLA and the state’s Law and Parliamentary Affairs minister, Mushtaq Ahmad Lone. He was briefly challenged by party rival Nasir Sogami, a close confidante of Omar Abdullah. But the writ and muscle of the NC’s old guard, which hogs the party’s Central Election Board, prevailed. Sogami too may also go his own way. The ripples of his decision will show up in the polling figures: Lone had got 9,554 votes (37.26%) of 25,638 votes polled in 1996. Again, the opposition’s vote share was 62.73% against 37.26 % by Lone.

Ironically, Congress candidate Choudhary Jalal-ud-din—a counter-insurgent who didn’t even belong to the constituency—had managed to pull in 20.74% of the votes. The buzz this year is that slain separatist leader Abdul Gani Lone’s Peoples Conference—which enjoys substantial support here—may informally issue a whip to its cadre to oppose the NC.

Handwara (Constituency No. 4) It may be represented by NC veteran and Agriculture minister Choudhary Mohammad Ramzan, but it’s no cakewalk for the ruling party. Ramzan’s huge winning margin in 1996 owed more to the absence of a strong Opposition candidate rather than charisma or achievement. The Hurriyat boycott in 1996 also played into the NC’s hands here, since Handwara is a Peoples Conference (PC) bastion. But this time, the PC’s line is much softer, and it’s said that a confidante of Gani Lone, Ghulam Mohideen Sofi, may formally resign from the PC and contest from here as an independent candidate, with the PC’s unofficial support.

Langate (Constituency No. 5) The National Conference’s Abdul Ahad Kar won from here in 1996. But after his murder by surrendered militants, the party lost the by-election to independent Mohammad Sultan Panditpuri, who later joined Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s Peoples Democratic Party. For this election, the NC will field its MP in the Rajya Sabha, Sharief-ud-Din Shariq, who has been borrowed from the neighbouring Handwara constituency. But his track record in his own constituency hasn’t been too impressive.

Sopore (Constituency No. 8) In Syed Ali Shah Geelani country, the Congress has pitted former PCC president Ghulam Rasool Kar against NC veteran Abdul Ahad Vakil. While a poll boycott here will impact the voter turnout, unlike in 1996—when no obstacle tripped the NC’s free run—the contest is expected to be a close one.

Gurez (Constituency No. 9) Bagged by independent candidate Faqir Mohammad in 1996, who later joined the NC. But after being denied a ticket this year, he will try his luck as an independent. All of which will help the cause of Congress candidate Mir Abdul Hamid, who had stood third in 1996.

Bandipora (Constituency No. 10) The NC high command has, yet again, alienated its party cadres here by snatching the election ticket out of sitting MLA Ghulam Rasool Naz’s hands and giving it to counter-insurgent turned politician Javaid Ahmad Shah. What could swing fortunes for any opposition candidate here is the silent solidarity of the Peoples Conference.

Sonawari (Constituency No. 11) Was won by counter-insurgent turned politician Kuka Parrey in 1996. All talk that the NC would play on the anti-surrendered militant sentiment this time fell silent when it fielded a surrendered militant in Bandipore. And expelled Jamat-e-Islami leader Khaliq Hanief, who’s in the fray, will further split the NC vote. The winner? Could well be Parrey.

Sangrama (Constituency No. 12) NC has replaced its sitting MLA, but the shining new face of Mohammad Yousuf Bhat is also rather wet behind the ears.

Baramulla (Constituency No. 13) The nomination of the relatively lesser known Ghulam Nabi Kachroo over sitting MLA Mohammad Abdullah Mujahid kicked up loud protests and demonstrations among the NC cadre. Though opposition parties haven’t sprung the names of their candidates yet, former Union minister Saif-ud-din Soz, who recently joined the Congress, is a favourite.

Gulmarg (Constituency No. 14) It’s represented by Farooq Abdullah’s younger brother and Industries minister Mustafa Kamal, but Opposition candidate Ghulam Hassan Mir may steal the show. In 1996, the NC won by all of 1,753 votes—Kamal had polled 49.23% votes and Mir, 44.59% votes.