When all formulae floated on thin air

A cautious President insisted on the recommendation of dissolution by the Council of Ministers because he does not want to set a precedent for an activist President in the future even though he was told by Attorney General Ashok Desai and legal expert Soli Sorabjee that he had the power to take the decision himself.

The cardinal sin was committed by the Congress with its remove-DMK single- point demand. Subsequently, it could not get out of the labyrinth. This showed a a lack of mature leadership which indulged in brinkmanship without thinking through the consequences.

As is well known by now, Kesri’s opponents used the opportunity of the Jain Commission report to get at him in the hope of wresting the Congress presidentship from him. This, however, isn’t going to be easy: unless he quits voluntarily – as P V Narasimha Rao did – dethroning a Congress chief has to be done by the party’s plenary.

The Congress MPs, who were all consulted about the party’s stand, did not speak their mind for fear of “10, Janpath.” They feared they could be blacklisted by Sonia Gandhi if she decided to enter active politics and they spoke against elections on an issue such as Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. The internal war in the party, which is bound to dog its steps during the elections, and its sycophantic character proved to be its undoing.

The BJP could not break the Congress even though the catchment area was not small. But the number did not cross 32 though BJP leaders privately talked about the number having gone up to 40. There are several reasons.

One, the BJP could not find a Naresh Aggarwal in Delhi. Two, unlike UP where the group was more cohesive, the Congress parliamentary party had members from all states. The majority of Congress MPs are from the south and they still hoped that the incumbency factor in the southern states might work to their advantage in an election. Moreover, old associations are difficult to break. The UP unit of the Congress broke after three or four defeats in the state. This may well happen to the Congress at the Centre after another defeat in a general election.

Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma’s unexpected decision to adjourn the House sine die queered the pitch for the BJP as it reduced the number of MPs who were around to be mobilised. Soon thereafter emerged the “Sangma plan” and this made many otherwise panicky Congress MPs hopeful that some way be found to avoid an election. The plan envisaged him as the head of a national government or as a consensus compromise choice of the UF-Congress combine.

Having botched up the operation initially, the Congress moved cleverly later and kept up the charade of a possible solution in sight. Unlike the Congress, the UF exhibited an unusual unity. It remains to be seen whether it lasts .