`What more do you want? We’ve got all the scientific data we

In an extensive interview to NIRMALA GEORGE, the DAE chief answers many questions on the tests, on the nuclear power scenario and thefuture of the Indian civilian and military nuclear programme. The following are excerpts from the interview:

With the data generated from the Pokharan tests, does the Department of Atomic Energy feel it has done enough tests?
The five tests we did were of advanced designs. We tried out a dozen new ideas and subsystems, and everything worked as my friend (BARC Director Anil) Kakodkar would say, "perfectly". We got an excellent match between measured yields of these devices and the calculated design yields. This was confirmed by a variety of methods … seismic data from regional centres, and now that we’ve drilled at the site, post-shot drilling data. Every one of the devices has worked exactly according to design. We’re very happy with the results. It has yielded a tremendous amount of data and has given us a very good database.

From a scientist’s point of view, do you think Indian scientists have the capability of conducting sub-critical tests?
At Pokharan we tested out a rangeof devices of .5 kiloton, .3 kiloton and .2 kiloton yields. Our results were very close to our expected yields. Which means our capability to control this multiplication factor has been totally proved. Today, our knowledge of solid state theory is extremely high. We have what are called density functional methods, we’ve got very powerful computers which calculate the total energy in solids and various compression data. With computers all these calculations can be done very precisely.

The beauty of our computer package is the absolute fit in all devices, between our design yields and the measured yields during the tests. We have computer simulation capabilities. It is already there. We’ve shown it in all our experiments by proving the matching.. because of the excellent match between the calculated yields of the design and the measured yields after the tests.

The government has been talking of building a consensus on signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Can India continue its R and D, if itsigns the CTBT?
Only nuclear explosive tests are not allowed under CTBT. Nuclear tests are disallowed. On our advice, they (the government) declared a moratorium on testing. What more do you want? We’ve got all the scientific data we needed. Because there was an excellent match between design and yields, that is why we have no difficulty with the moratorium on testing that the Prime Minister announced immediately after the Pokharan tests.

Does India have enough material for a credible minimum nuclear deterrent?
That’s a political question. The External Affairs Minister has answered this question. He was very clear on the FMCT. We have nothing more to add to this.

India has an exemplary record on its self-imposed export controls. Would India consider joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)?
One has to examine this carefully. Join (the NSG) as what? What do we gain by joining the NSG? To become a member so that all export controls on India are removed, and technology controlson India are removed. If export controls from the suppliers side to India are simplified or eased, then one could think of NSG. However, one has to work out what it means, in terms of what would be our status, what benefits we get from joining, all this has to be looked at.

Where does the nuclear programme go from here in the coming decades, both civilian and the military programme?
In June 1995, we had a meeting called "Vision 2000", where we have set a target of 20,000 MW from nuclear power by the year 2020. We are very optimistic about reaching this goal and the fuel cycle facilities which go along with that. It will be a mixture of Pressurised Heavy Water reactors, Fast Breeder reactors and light water reactors. In the field of applications, production of isotopes for use in agriculture and medicine, will all increase. There are many other areas in which we have special capabilities, like accelerators and lasers… all of which we will continue to work on. Because nuclear energy activities ina developing country act as a catalyst for other high technology activities.

(On the military side) in terms of nuclear weapons, we will deliver whatever is needed for a minimum credible nuclear deterrent. Our part in it, we will do. No problems.

You’ve talked of a target of 20,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020. Where’s the money going to come from?
That’s the money for power. Nuclear energy is a little costlier in terms of capital costs, though unit energy costs are comparable. That kind of money has to be found whatever kind of power station you want to set up.

There is no question in my mind that one of the most important measures of development is per capita electricity consumption. The other is literacy, especially female literacy. Per capita electricity consumption has to go up 8 to 10 times. That kind of level cannot be achieved without nuclear power.Coal has to be the mainstay to start with in our country. Hydel is very important, in my opinion hydel power is best, since you also getirrigation, but you have to take care of the people who are displaced. Solar, biomass, wind energy all these will play a role, but in small packages.

The reason we may have to resort to nuclear energy is that after three to five decades, our coal reserves will go down to alarming levels, then there will be no option left. Then the time will come when we may decide that all the coal should be reserved for carbon-based industries, apart from the fact that problems of global warming may become more acute.