It is always dangerous to read too much into by-election results. But the magnitude of Lalu Prasads comeback calls into scrutiny the state of play in Bihars politics. This months by-elections had been called a semi-final because as many as 18 assembly seats were up for election and because they come just about a year before the state re-elects its legislative assembly. In alliance with Ram Vilas Paswans LJP,Lalus RJD has taken nine of those seats,with the Congress getting two and the ruling JDU-BJP alliance keeping just five. Previously,a majority of these seats were with the JDU-BJP. But the possible significance of the by-elections derives equally from the fact that in this years Lok Sabha elections,the RJD-LJP could get just four of the 40 parliamentary seats,with the ruling alliance getting 32.
Lalus assertion of his relevance in Bihars politics poses questions for all other political parties in the state. Will Nitish Kumar,so far seen to be unshakeable,see this reversal as an impediment to the possibility of striking it alone in Bihars multi-party politics? Will the Congress,having got two seats this month and having rattled every other party by being seen to be making an overture to Nitish during the general elections,reassess Lalus worth and reverse its go-it-alone strategy? Will Paswan,believed to be wooed by the Congress for a merger with his LJP,now be tempted to in fact strengthen his pact with the RJD?