Revised export data leaves officials baffled

The difference between the initial estimates and revised figures released this month are surprising as both are collated by the same agency,the DGCIS,which is the nodal agency for monitoring the value of India’s foreign trade. The figures,posted on its website,puts India’s revised exports in 2008-09 at $182.63 billion,a growth of 12%,from the original estimate of $168.7 billion,or an annual growth of just 3.4%.

A month-wise comparison of the data shows the sharpest differences in February and March 2009. The new data shows exports in February expanded 9.11% ($16.82 billion),while in March it increased 17.9% ($22.79 billion). According to provisional data in commerce ministry press releases earlier this year,exports in February had dipped 23.3% ($16.82 billion),while in March it had contracted 34% ($15.56 billion).

Significantly,RBI,which sources data from DGCIS,has not revised its foreign trade numbers so far. RBI data still shows that India’s exports have been in negative territory since October 2008. RBI captures actual cash flows resulting from exports. The Kolkata-based DGCIS,on the other hand,uses computerised data of port bookings–export and import–to compile its figures. Where the system is manual,it uses sampling.

Khullar said such a difference between RBI and DGCIS numbers hadn’t been seen earlier,though exporters obviously sought to downplay the revision. “I do not know how a revision of this extent can take place. Most export sectors saw a decline during the year,” said Federation of Indian Export Organisations president A Sakthivel.

Economists are also puzzled. “Indian exports have mostly followed the same pattern as Asian exports. Overseas demand has remained weak and prices of commodities also did not show drastic upward changes. The revision in exports seems too much,” said Nomura economist Sonal Varma.

India’s chief statistician,Pronab Sen,said the difference in data was curious,but added it was difficult to believe that changes for the gems & jewellery and engineering sectors could explain such a large shift. The sector-wise break-up of DGCIS data shows exports of gems & jewellery expanded nearly 41% to $27.7 billion,while engineering goods shipments grew 18.6% to $40 billion. On a smaller scale,the export of electronic goods doubled to $7.12 billion. But petroleum exports contracted 5.45% to $26.82 billion.

One possible reason for the change in the value of exports is that DGCIS revises the foreign trade numbers after obtaining updated data from seaports,airports as well as land-based customs stations. One official attributed the large revision to export data from SEZs not being included in last year’s cumulative exports. This is because desegregated export data from SEZs–housing both manufacturing-based exporters and IT firms engaging in software exports–was not available.

Against the backdrop of the global economic crisis,the government wrote in measures to support exports as part of its three stimulus packages. The packages included interest subvention of 2% for pre- and post-shipment credit,government backing for Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India and a credit line of Rs 5,000 crore for Exim Bank. The new foreign trade policy continued the measures,which,according to rough estimates,will cost the exchequer Rs 2,200 crore. The additional burden,which was intended to jump-start the economy,caused the fiscal deficit to balloon to 6% in 2008-09,while in 2009-10 it is estimated to be 6.8% of GDP. Last week,Khullar told exporters not to expect more sops from the government in the near future because of the “serious fiscal situation”.