Lean is in

But it is the evolved varieties,mainly Pusa 1121,which was notified as basmati in 2008,that will lead this surge. “Lower returns last year has weaned farmers away from traditional varieties. As per initial ground surveys in major basmati producing states,it is Pusa 1121 and sharbati,which is not technically basmati,that farmers are going for. In Punjab,Haryana,UP and Uttarkhand,area under Pusa 1121 will again be on the higher side while that under sharbati will go up by at least five per cent,” says Dr Dharmesh Verma of Hyderabad-based satellite mapping company Agri Net.

He attributes the rise of sharbati to its comparative cost advantage. “Unlike traditional basmati varieties,the cost of production of sharbati is lower. This slender rice variety,which is not technically basmati,has higher yield,matures early and also has a good demand in the domestic market,” adds Verma.

The seed availability of traditional basmati varieties,too,is a contributing factor. “Farmers have not kept seed of some varieties such as Pakistan 386 that are grown in Punjab. So they opt for Pusa 1121. Add to this the fluctuation in prices of traditional basmati last year when farmers fetched much lower prices than previous years,” adds Verma.

And the high production is not likely to dampen export demand,says All India Rice Exporters Association president Vijay Setia. “Indian basmati stands to gain from factors such as countries such as Thailand,which accounts for one-third of total rice exports — 10 million tonnes —hiking its rice prices and growing demand in emerging markets such as Iraq,” he said.

With reports of last year’s basmati stocks still lying with exporters,the higher production this year will not adveresly impact exports,says APEDA. “Higher stocks mean higher exports. Carrying over previous year’s stocks proves purposeful as this year’s production will impact next year’s exports,” adds Gupta.

The area under basmati in Punjab has doubled in the last few years. It was 3.5 lakh hectares in 2008-09,5.15 lakh hectares in 2009-10 and again jumped to 5.5 lakh hectares in last year. “It may further go up to 6 lakh hectares but this may dampen prices. The absence of assured marketing and minimum support price like other paddy varieties,oversupply can crash basmati prices,” says Punjab Agriculture Director B S Sidhu.

“It is a paradox as consumer and farmers prices do not match. Starting from farmers to millers and exporters,there are many stakeholders. This creates a typical marketing situation wherein farmers are forced to offlload the crop at lower prices over a short period of time,” adds Gupta.