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Journalism of Courage
As she battles to stay afloat in Australias election,Julia Gillard admits that her campaign is not working. The prime minister,only a few weeks in the job,plans to throw out the rule book and let voters look at the real Julia. With the race for the election on August 21st entering its final fortnight,she had better try something striking. She started the campaign as favourite,but her fortunes have suddenly plummeted. Opinion polls suggest that Labor may lose power,after just one term,to the opposition Liberal-National coalition.
The worst of them,on July 31st,pointed to a four-point lead for the conservative coalition over Labor,once second-preference votes were dished out. Two days later a poll gave each side 50 per cent. Even then,first votes for Labor were stuck at a perilous 37 per cent,meaning it would have to rely on second-preference votes cast by Greens and independents.
Mr Rudd himself was at first blamed for the leaks. He denied it,then disappeared into hospital to have his gall bladder removed. Whoever was responsible for Ms Gillards difficulties,she has been damaged by the impression that disgruntled colleagues are out to get her. Although Mr Rudd drove many to despair,the brutal manner of his exit has left her with problems. Mr Rudds home state of Queensland,where he is still a favourite son,will be crucial in the election. A poll on August 4th showed that Labors vote has fallen there and in the neighbouring,populous state of New South Wales 8212; though it has risen in Victoria and South Australia,two states that Ms Gillard calls home.
Ms Gillards best hope may be to focus on Australias economic resilience in the global downturn. The central bank on August 3rd again left interest rates unchanged,at 4.5 per cent. Good news followed with the report of a A3.5 billion 3.1 billion trade surplus for June,a record. But,having claimed the government was losing its way when she unseated Mr Rudd,it will be hard now to take credit for good economic performance on his watch. Mr Rudd on August 4th offered a rapprochement,by saying that he would absolutely campaign to prevent Tony Abbott,the opposition leader,sliding into office by default.
Still,Mr Abbott cannot believe his luck. The political class once pronounced him unelectable because of his conservative social views,abrasive manner and poor appeal to women. Sensing a swing in sentiment,he has refused an offer of a second televised debate,on the economy. He still trails Ms Gillard in polls as preferred prime minister; but that gap is closing,too.
