4 reasons why Amazon won’t be shipping by drones anytime soon

1) Drone delivery flights are illegal,at present: Among other prohibitions,the Federal Aviation Administration bans drone flights over 400 feet altitude and near airports and populated areas. Bezos’ plan is for the robots to take off from fulfillment centers near big cities. They might be able to stay below 400 feet and avoid airports. But exactly how can a drone deliver a package to a populated area without flying over a populated area?

Also,the FAA currently bans all commercial uses of drones. Simply stated,you’re not allowed to make money off them — which is exactly what Bezos aims to do.

2) Drones are expensive: The drones Bezos showed are “octocopters,” and they’re not cheap. A high-performance drone — one capable of long-range flight at high speed while also carrying several pounds worth of packages — can set you back $50,000. Middling models are around $3,000. Budget drones such as the $300 AR Parrot are notoriously flimsy and unreliable.

Based on rough calculations,a driver and his truck cost $40,000 a year to acquire and operate. A typical driver can deliver 75 packages a day. It would take at least six drones costing $300,000 to do the same amount of work. The drones would have to fly 12 hour-long,round-trip deliveries five days a week for eight years in order to be even a dollar cheaper than a human driver. The bottom line is that people are probably cheaper.

3) Drones are dumb: People can read maps,follow directions,navigate lawns and foot paths,step over shrubs,squeeze onto cluttered porches,read house numbers and ring doorbells to let customers know their packages have arrived. By contrast,even the most sophisticated flying robots lack the ability to read numbers and dodge obstacles such as wires and birds. There’s no way they can ring your doorbell. The best today’s octocopters can manage is to follow GPS coordinates to the approximate location of your house.

4) People distrust drones: Many of the world’s most sophisticated flying robots are in the military’s possession. They fly over foreign battlefields,spying on insurgents and terrorists and even attacking them with missiles and bombs. In the US,the Department of Homeland Security is a major drone user. Their use in warfare and surveillance has instilled a deep suspicion of drones in most people.

David Axe