Weather will play an important role

Sri Lankans for me were the favourites in 1996 because they had batsmen who could be match-winners and they had useful all-rounders who could effectively use the conditions in the sub-continent. But England will be a different ball game, though the conditions would be fair and equal for those who have played enough cricket in England at Test, County, or at league level. I presume that number would be very high. Also, conditions in New Zealand and English are quite similar, so I don’t think that any team, except Kenya and Bangladesh will be advantaged or disadvantaged too much.The pitches will be easy paced but I would expect the seam and swing bowler to get early assistance, especially with the new Duke white cricket ball that is being used. The spinners are unlikely to be as effective as they were in 1996 when in favourbale conditions they were difficult to hit.

The pre-tournament build-up games in early May will be important for all teams so that they can adapt to the playing conditions and work out their final playing combinations. When the competition starts, self determination will be vital, as non performance means that any team could be one of the three to be eliminated from each group. At least two rated teams will miss the cut for the `Super Six’.

Once again the weather will play a very important part in the early rounds because the Test playing nations will want to secure maximum points against teams like Bangladesh, Scotland and Kenya.

The worst scenario would be to lose to any one of those teams, but the next worst scenario would be for the weather to play its part and force no play which would result in the points being shared. In that situation, highly-rated teams could get eliminated, failing to qualify, may be, by a point.

World ratings would suggest that South Africa and Australia are firm favourites to win. The hardest thing for each team to would be to qualify for the `Super Six’, but once that has been achieved, the whole competition is wide open.

Group A features England, India, Kenya, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe. I would expect South Africa, England and India to qualify for the `Super Six’. England may have suffered some humiliating losses of late and their poor performances in Sharjah recently have not impressed many of their followers, but the home advantage is a big asset for them.

I recall New Zealand’s poor performances against England prior to the 1992 World Cup held in New Zealand and then they went on to win seven World Cup round-robin matches in a row before losing to Pakistan in the semi-final.South Africa have all-round ability and an impressive record in recent years. India have enough stars and experience to get them through to the Super Six and, perhaps, go all the way as they did in 1983.

Zimbabwe could cause an upset or two but they will need a complete team performance. Kenya are unlikely to repeat the performance of 1996 when they caused an upset beating the West Indies.

In group B which comprises Australia, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Pakistan, Scotland and the West Indies, Australia and Pakistan are favourites to qualify easily. The third qualifier is difficult to predict.The West Indies are potentially dangerous but their recent form suggests they will be inconsistent. They are likely to win a match very easily and then lose the next one very badly.

New Zealand will need to beat either Australia, Pakistan or the West Indies to qualify for the `Super Six’, and that is possible. Scotland and Bangladesh may not win a game but they will gain valuable experience and enjoy the big occasion.

l Sir Richard Hadlee, one of the greatest all-rounders of all-time, was the first man to take 400 Test wickets

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