LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran's meeting with a Norwegian special envoy this week gives rise to a glimmer of hope that a way can be found to restart peace negotiations in Sri Lanka. During a three-hour meeting, the first in many years with an intermediary, Prabhakaran apparently said he was interested in a peaceful settlement of the 17-year ethnic conflict. At this stage it is impossible to assess the seriousness of the LTTE leader's intent or how far he is prepared to go to make possible a meeting across the table with the Sri Lanka government. The Norwegian envoy himself says it could be weeks or even years before peace talks resume. To overestimate the importance of the latest development would be as much of a mistake as dismissing it as a ploy. Whatever the underlying reasons for his change of heart - war fatigue, the persuasion of intermediaries or reassessment of his military and political options - it is promising that Prabhakaran was willing to discuss confidence-building steps with theNorwegians. A cautious response to this initiative from Colombo would not be out of place.According to clandestine LTTE radio broadcasts, the Tigers are looking for a cessation of hostilities and an end to the economic embargo in areas they control in the north of the island. It should be obvious to them as to anyone else that they are asking for too much to start with. Peace initiatives have been sabotaged by the LTTE many times in the past and the Sri Lankan army has paid too heavily for its military gains. The army is unlikely to lower its guard to make concessions unless there is a reasonable degree of certainty about the Tigers' motives. Is this genuinely intended to be a fruitful process? The process of de-escalation prior to talks will have to be carefully calibrated and monitored. It will involve reciprocal steps which are agreed in advance and strictly observed. With a long history of bad blood and mistrust between the two sides, it is of paramount importance to find a way of freezing the military status quo while the search for peace goes on. This time there will be no Indianpeacekeepers and thought must be given to bringing in an international peacekeeping force at an appropriate stage to hold the balance. Although the Sri Lankan government approves of Norwegian efforts to mediate, President Chandrika Kumaratunga is right to remain wary and watchful of Tiger manoeuvres. But neither can she afford to lose an opportunity to restart the peace process when one presents itself. She will need all the courage, political savvy and support from friends she can muster at this time.The obstacles are formidable as all sides know. Hope of progress towards peace must reside in Prabhakaran coming to the realisation that he has fought his way at a great price in Sri Lankan lives to a military stalemate. Furthermore, the international community does not support a breakaway Tamil state. Autonomy, yes. Independence, no. There is no alternative to a negotiated peace settlement. Perhaps Prabhakaran knows that Sri Lanka's elections have left him with no choice but to talk peace with Kumaratunga.
