War risk very high till 2015

The risk of war between India and Pakistan will remain fairly high over the next 15 years and both countries will continue to build up their nuclear and missile forces, a US National Intelligence Council projection for 2015 has claimed. The threat of a major conflict between India and Pakistan will overshadow all other regional issues during the next 15 years, it claimed.

The report also said both countries will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems. India is most likely to expand the size of its nuclear force. Pakistan’s nuclear and missile forces will also continue to increase. A noticeable increase in the size of India’s arsenal, however, would prompt Pakistan to further increase the size of its own arsenal, it said, adding that continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas, prompting India to take more aggressive pre-emptive and retaliatory actions.

The report also said that India will emerge as an unparalleled regional and economic power by the year 2015 and its growth alongwith China and Russia may form a ‘‘de facto geo-stragic alliance’’ to counterbalance US and Western influence, the report said.

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The report also points out that the international community will have to deal with the military, political and economic dimensions of the rise of China and India and the decline of Russia. The future being contemplated by US Intelligence officials is part of a long-ranging forecasting endeavour compiled in the National Intelligence Council 2015 project that seeks to come up with scenarios the world could face then.

The council is made up of analysts who advise Director of Intelligence George J. Tenet. The study was undertaken in consultation with a wide range of non-official experts.