Much has been written about China's anger over A.B. Vajpayee's letter to the US President wherein a weaponised China was indirectly mentioned as a reason for India going nuclear. Anguish was also expressed when the defence minister identified China as the main threat to India. The proponents of the Hindi Chini bhai-bhai concept were somewhat mollified when the Prime Minister contradicted his defence minister on allegations concerning a Chinese helipad in Arunachal Pradesh. A damage-control exercise was then undertaken by expressing India's keenness to have good relations with China.But then the hand-wringing over Vajpayee's letter to Bill Clinton was back. Badgering the BJP-led government for what is described as a maladroitly drafted letter cannot, however, detract from the truth of its basic premise - that a weaponised China with whom India is yet to settle its border dispute is to be perceived as a national security threat by India.The conduct of the Chinese in the last few years only goes tostrengthen this view. Every effort has been made by India to seek a better relationship. But China's action in strengthening the nuclear and missile capabilities of Pakistan is hardly helpful in creating confidence in the Indian mind. China started supplying the M-11 missiles to Pakistan in 1992.Mirza Aslam Beg, a former Pakistan army chief, admitted to the purchases, but denied that the missiles were nuclear-capable. More than 30 missiles are reportedly stored at the Sargodha Air Base near Lahore. Practice launches by the Pakistani military, assisted by Chinese experts, were reported. The CIA reported in the first half of 1997 that China was also assisting Pakistan in building a missile factory to produce short-range missiles and the M-11. Engineers from the China Precision Machinery Import Corporation, which markets Chinese missiles abroad, apparently visited the plant.The M-11 is an accurate, mobile and solid fuel-based surface-to-surface missile with a range of 300 km. It can carry nuclear warheadsand has a payload capacity of 800 kg. According to some reports, Pakistan paid $185 million for 84 M-11s with 12-20 launchers and another $516 million for missile technology. China was also assisting Pakistan with guidance and control systems, solid fuel, and other technologies.In 1982 Salim Mehmud, chairman of the Pakistani Space Agency SUPARCO, lamented the lack of specialists and training facilities besides financial and infrastructural limitations in his organisation. By that time India was well into its Satellite Launch Vehicle programme. The 80 km and 200 km range Hatf missile programmes were started by Pakistan in the early 1980s and tests were announced in 1989. A number of failures and problems were reported even in the shorter-range Hatf I missile. But in 1998, we find Pakistan catching up with India by launching the 1,500 km range ballistic missile Ghauri over land, which calls for great confidence in its accuracy. It involved mastering reentry technology, which Pakistan is not known to possessindigenously. Pakistani officials are talking of extending its range to cover the whole of India. The credit for bringing Pakistan to this level of technology must go to the Chinese.Chinese nuclear assistance to Pakistan, apart from a $500 million deal in 1992 to construct a 300 MW reactor at Chashma, includes aiding the construction of a research reactor, provision of the design for a 25-kiloton implosion device and enough weapons-grade uranium for two nuclear weapons. It has also transferred 5,000 ring magnets to the A.Q. Khan Research Laboratory in Kahuta, for use in gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment. The laboratory is not under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency, while China is a member of the IAEA and a signatory to the NPT. The supplier, the China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation, and is under the direct control of the State Council and therefore the Chinese premier. A CIA report of September 14,1996 mentioned the Chinese sale of a ``special industrial furnace and high-tech diagnostic equipment" to Pakistan. These are dual-use items usable for melting plutonium and uranium for weapons. It is difficult to believe that the tests in the Chagai Hills of Pakistan were not facilitated by Chinese assistance.China has helped Pakistan in its quest for nuclear and missile capability because it sees it as a useful ally in any future confrontation with India. In the east, China has been assiduously cultivating Myanmar with arms and economic aid, despite the human right violations of the military junta there, trying to get a foothold in the Indian Ocean and to use Myanmar as a springboard for action against India, if the need arises.China's readiness to engage in negotiations and to work out confidence-building measures are convenient policy options for the present, when China would prefer to have peace on its borders and concentrate on building up its economic and military strength. Right now, it has moreimportant issues to settle like the disputes over the South China Sea islands which, as an oil-bearing area, have great economic significance. There is also the question of the unification of Taiwan with the mainland to be settled.In the 1962 conflict, China took what it needed, like Aksai Chin, through which the road from Tibet to Xinjiang passes. In 10 years of negotiations in the India-China Joint Working Group, it has conceded nothing. It wants to leave the dispute in cold storage and concentrate on keeping the peace. It would prefer to deal with the issue at a time convenient to it - that is, when it is economically and militarily strong and has solved more immediate problems.China has never shown concern for India's feelings on any issue. For instance, when Vajpayee had gone on an official visit to China as foreign minister in 1979, his presence did not deter the Chinese from starting their `teaching a lesson' war with Vietnam, a close friend of India. The best the Chinese have done so far is tochange their Kashmir policy from one of strident support for Pakistan and shrill condemnation of India to studied neutrality. Even this could change if relations take a turn for the worse.Kautilya had said that your enemy's enemy is your friend. Obviously, the Chinese take it seriously. India would do well to remember this when it ponders over who is a greater threat - China or Pakistan.The author was special secretary to the Government of India
