The Bush administration, convinced that Fidel Castro’s regime could collapse any time, has begun developing plans to help Cuba manage a change in government and nudge the aging President’s successor towards a US-style system.
Administration officials say they are trying to chart how they would react if the Cuban leader’s death, for example, opened the way for a leadership more sympathetic to the United States. And they are considering what they would do if it set off a mass migration towards Florida that the United States would have to head off.
From President Bush down, the administration ‘‘has come to a realisation that we need to be more vigorous in thinking through what we would do in any number of contingencies,’’ an administration official said.
Earlier this year, the US signed a $1-million contract with the University of Miami, which is sponsoring research on how Cuba could restructure its judiciary, strengthen the rule of law, build democratic institutions and compensate families whose property was confiscated by Castro’s government.
The effort to steer Cuba toward democratic change is the second prong of the Bush administration’s policy towards the island. The first, of course, is the 40-year-old embargo on travel and trade with Cuba, which the administration has been fighting hard to maintain in the face of increasing resistance from Congress.
But Bush, who believes that more trade and travel to Cuba will only enrich the Castro regime, has vowed to veto any legislation that includes the eased restrictions if they survive a congressional conference committee scheduled to begin hearings soon.
‘‘This administration actually intends to do something to promote democracy and regime change in Cuba,’’ executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation, Dennis K. Hays said.
Many analysts say the post-Castro government might permit additional limited free enterprise to turn around the island’s economy. But many also believe it would resist political reform. — LATWP