UPA, political moment, nation

For the ruling alliance at the Centre, the signals are unmistakable: Call a flash election, or else face the brewing disaffection against the government later

There are two ways of reading the political message of the Indian Express—CNN-IBN—CSDS poll. Many within the government would no doubt draw comfort from the fact that the people do not want mid-term polls and that public opinion is not against the government on the Indo-US deal. They would be delighted that the ruling coalition can look forward to improving its performance in the next election. The survey projects that with a tally of 267 seats in the Lok Sabha, the UPA can continue in power without the Left and, with some luck, without any outside support. The NDA, particularly the BJP, is expected to go down significantly. Coming in the fourth year of being in power, this assurance is bound to lull Congressmen into a complacency typical of the Congress’ tryst with power.

On a politically astute reading, however, this survey signals the beginning of the end of this government’s extended honeymoon. The UPA did not come to power riding on a high tide of popularity. The six-monthly State of the Nation Surveys carried out by the CSDS for CNN-IBN and now Indian Express showed that in the first two years, the UPA government earned a mandate it did not come with. That delayed the onset of disenchantment. The UPA hit the peak by January 2007 from which it can only come down.

The latest survey suggests that the journey downwards has already begun. The UPA has dropped about 30 Lok Sabha seats and about 4 percentage points of popular vote in the last six months. More, there are signs of public disenchantment of the kind that did the NDA in. In the last two years, the UPA government was rated to be way above the NDA government. This time the gap has narrowed substantially. People say that corruption, terrorism, unemployment and inflation have gone up after the UPA came to power. The most damning sign is that the government’s policies are seen to have benefited only the rich and worsened the conditions of farmers.

The survey thus poses a challenge for the ruling coalition and, above all, for the Congress. If they are listening to this signal they have to take a call, sooner than later: how should they respond to their declining political fortune?

Again, there are two ways of responding to this challenge. One way is for the government to buy time to produce results in the next year or more. Political realism appears to be dawning upon the Left and the Congress could take up any of the peace offers to work out a patchwork solution. Even if it can do so, the task it faces is stupendous. The challenge is not just of devising the right economic policies but of forging the right politics for these policies. Controlling what the economist calls ‘inflation’ is necessary but it is not going to be enough. For an ordinary citizen ‘price rise’ is a euphemism for the entire gamut of livelihood issues. The government has to address that big question and be seen to be doing so effectively.

Going by its record in the last three years, that is a tall order for this government. For all its major policy initiatives — NREGA, RTI, Sarva Shiksha, Sachar Committee, Forest Act — the government has displayed little political will or even the desire to evolve a political strategy for taking these beyond the files. The government had nearly killed its own RTI Act. Movement groups like the MKSS have done more to promote the NREGA than the entire Congress party. The Left may have served the Congress more than the Congressmen in reminding the party of its own agenda and manifesto. Indeed, it would be a bold claim that something like the Congress party exists on the ground and that its national leaders exercise any control over its own cadre. It is too much to expect this kind of government and party to reverse its political decline.

The other option, then, is for the government to cut its losses and go for mid-term polls. The Indian Express—CNN-IBN—CSDS poll shows that the growing resentment against the government has not yet fully translated into a big loss of votes and seats as the UPA enjoys one enduring and one temporary advantage over the NDA. The enduring advantage is that the Congress-led coalition is a much bigger political entity than the shrinking coalition led by the BJP. In order to take on the UPA, the NDA needs to include all the anti-Congress forces and hope for a particularly fortunate moment. The UPA could consolidate its advantage by repairing the coalition in Bihar and Jharkhand, bringing Mamata Banerjee into its fold and by partial alliance with the BSP.

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The temporary advantage for the UPA is that the electoral cycle has moved full circle in the major BJP-ruled states except Gujarat and will result in big electoral losses for the party. But the Congress is not yet on the receiving end of the incumbency disadvantage in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra and Haryana. Hence the current buoyancy in its political stock.

From the point of view of the Congress, then, it cannot afford to delay the decision. Only a flash election can give the Congress the opportunity to convert the current situation into electoral victory. Any serious delay could intensify the brewing disaffection all over the country. In particular, it is likely that the incumbency disadvantage could lead to major losses in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Haryana and Tamil Nadu. It would give the BJP the time it needs to recover from its organisational disarray and build bridges with Shiv Sena, INLD, Trinamul Congress and AIADMK. Above all, the survey indicates that the BJP still enjoys a clear lead in Gujarat. A victory in the Gujarat election will give the BJP the moral booster it desperately needs after UP. If the Congress is serious about mid-term polls, it has to gather its political wits, rally its allies, make a surprise announcement.

The question is: does the Congress have even the political will required to do so?

The writer is senior fellow at the CSDS, Delhi