Up for Grabs

Haryana was won by the INLD-BJP alliance primarily because they presented a combined opposition to the Congress. Over the past couple of years, there have been strains in the alliance and these strains were evident during the Assembly elections. Thus, the parties have parted ways and are fighting the polls separately.

The Chief Minister has a rather poor image and that is likely to contribute negatively to the INLD’s chances. Not only do 60 per cent of the voters see him as autocratic but he also has one of the worst records of Chief Ministers across the country. O.P. Chautala comes a poor 35 per cent while the average of all states is 47 per cent.

There is an old adage in politics: ‘‘Those who do not hang together, hang separately.’’ And this is exactly what is expected to happen to the INLD-BJP coalition. From a score of 10 out of 10, the findings of this poll suggest that the alliance partners should be lucky to hold fewer than 5 of the 10 seats.

Delhi

Delhi is the one among the four states where the Congress won the recent Vidhan Sabha elections. However, it is also a state where the BJP has done well in Lok Sabha elections since 1989. In fact, it held all seven seats in the recently dissolved Parliament.

In a state that encompasses the Lok Sabha, state factors are somewhat more likely to determine the vote for the Lok Sabha. As in the other states where Assembly elections were held recently, there is a swing in favour of the winner — in this case, the Congress. If the findings of these March opinion poll hold until the Lok Sabha elections in early May, the Congress is likely to capture a majority of the seats in Delhi.

Punjab

In 1999, the Akalis in Punjab were split and Badal and Tohra were at each other’s throats. And that split, in no small measure, helped the Congress capture 10 out of 13 seats. Now the Akalis have made up but there are some rumblings in the Akali Dal-BJP relationship. Chief Minister Amarinder Singh is not highly rated; his ratings are just about average (47 per cent).

However, the campaign alleging that Parkash Singh Badal is corrupt seems to be working, with nearly two-thirds of the respondents believing the allegation.

So, for the electorate, a situation prevails where an “average” Chief Minister is taking on a “corrupt” Akali leader but with a united Akali Dal behind him. The findings of the poll suggest a dead heat in terms of seats in the Lok Sabha.

Uttar Pradesh

The Assembly elections in UP were inconclusive as the four big parties all fought independently. The same scenario is likely to be repeated in the Lok Sabha elections. Mayawati has made it clear that she sees no benefit in a tie-up with the Congress. As far as the SP is concerned, Amar Singh has turned down the overtures of the Congress for a tie-up. Thus, UP will witness four-cornered fights for its massive 80 seats. But what is the view of the voters of these parties? As far as the SP-Congress tie-up was concerned, more than 60 per cent of the supporters of both parties who expressed an opinion were in favour of an alliance. The opinion was different for a BSP-Congress alliance. While BSP voters were rather lukewarm to the idea, a majority of Congress voters were against an alliance.

The four-cornered fight will ensure that the two big parties (the SP and the BJP) will make gains at the expense of the BSP and the Congress. This will be a matter of considerable consolation to the BJP that was badly mauled in the Vidhan Sabha elections.