Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has acted not a moment too soon to scotch the war hysteria that is being whipped up by the Pakistan army. In a bid to cool the overheated atmosphere between the two countries, he pointed to the real issue at stake — the responsibility of the Pakistani state to act against anti-India terror groups operating on its soil and launching repeated aggression against India. New Delhi should, however, have no illusions that it can easily prevent an unwanted and unplanned escalation of tensions with Pakistan. Unless the UPA government can consistently out-think the Pakistan army, which has emerged as the principal beneficiary of the Mumbai attacks, New Delhi is in danger of losing control over its crisis management strategy.Barely a day after the Mumbai terror began, the Pakistan army raised alarm bells, meant for American and European interlocutors, about its urgent need to move troops away from its western borders to cope with the presumed threat from the east. It proclaimed that the Pakistani Taliban and other militants fighting the Pakistani state were all “patriots” and would rally behind the army in fending off the purported danger from India. A malicious hoax was then engineered on the elected civilian president, Asif Ali Zardari — a “threatening call” from India’s foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee. Soon after came the stories about the violation of Pakistan’s air space by Indian fighter aircraft.Why does the Pakistan army appear to be itching for a fight? Military tension with India offers immediate relief from the mounting international pressure to eliminate the Taliban and other militant groups that the Pakistan army has nurtured for years. The mere talk of war has already helped “discipline” the civilian leadership, rally public opinion, and restore the army’s political primacy in Pakistan. Manmohan Singh’s message on Tuesday was quite clear — that India will not walk into this trap. The Pakistan army, which has habitually overplayed its hand, will surely have a few more provocations to offer. In order to fend them off, the PM needs to quickly overcome one of his government’s major weaknesses — the inability to communicate effectively with audiences at home and abroad. In the four weeks since the attacks on Mumbai, India has scrambled every time to cope with Pakistan’s repeated propaganda coups. The UPA government’s inability to shape, let alone dominate, the information domain could turn out to be rather costly for the nation. Self-righteousness, after all, is no substitute for strategy, especially in the middle of a major crisis.
