Tsunami recall

A powerful earthquake struck Sumatra and occasioned a tsunami warning across large swathes of coastal Asia. The tremors were felt across a range of countries and did considerable damage in islands like the Nias, off the Sumatra coast. The tsunami warning, however, turned out to be a false one. This earthquake was yet another reminder of the uncertainty of human attempts to master the vagaries of nature. While scientists had a sense that such an aftershock was likely, few could confidently predict whether a tsunami would occur as a result. Faced with such uncertainty, the scientists — and the governments in question — did the right thing by issuing the alert. The fact that there are elements of an early warning system now in place is a reminder of how much alert action can do to minimise loss of life.

The tsunami warning system seems to have worked exactly as it was supposed to. Within minutes of the earthquake, alerts were issued in parts of Asia most likely to be hit by a tsunami and people in coastal areas could at least take modest steps to move to areas more likely to be sheltered from a possible killer wave. There is some apprehension that too many false alarms will make the early warning system less credible. But this anxiety is overstated. Concrete steps are being taken to make the warnings more precise. While the earthquake alert system is in place, a more sophisticated system of monitoring the movement of the water in the ocean is being put in place. This will allow a more accurate measures of where the waves are likely to hit. Such a system was already in place in the Pacific Ocean. It underlines how Asia still lags behind in some respects that it took a disaster of the scale of the December tsunami to get governments in the region thinking in this direction.

But satellites, data crunching computers, seismographs, wave sensors will only be elements of the warning system. The crucial component will be how human beings are mobilised. There is some concern that early warning systems may not reach many poor and technologically disadvantaged communities that inhabit Asia’s coastlines, particularly in vulnerable countries like India and Bangladesh. All countries in the region will have to ensure that their populations are now thoroughly educated on the perils of being located along coastlines, as much as they are made cognisant of the opportunities. We cannot always control nature, but we can mitigate its destructive impact.