TraUma in the Family

And now, as September draws to a close and rumours of the UPA’s imminent demise seem vastly exaggerated, the internal bleeding caused by the midsummer collision is slowly seeping out. And it is not a pretty picture.

Over the past few days, the BJP’s old tag of ‘‘natural party of the Opposition’’ has acquired new meaning.

The party — its yatras and satyagrahas notwithstanding — has failed to come across as a serious or formidable opposition to the government. Nevertheless its star line-up, aka ‘‘second rung leaders’’, have been active in opposing — each other.

Hit the road, touch a raw nerve
SAMPLE this: Uma Bharati sets off an her Tiranga Yatra, out to make most of the halo she thinks she has acquired by giving up her chief ministery because of a vindictive arrest warrant by the Congress government in Karnataka.

She is robbed of the halo even before she starts off. Her opponents in the party (led by M. Venkaiah Naidu, according to the Uma camp) decide Sushma Swaraj will lead the Savarkar satyagraha, just to ensure Uma does not walk away with all the glory.

Midway through the yatra, Uma calls up party president Naidu and shouts at him for deliberately undermining her campaign.

Naidu goes into a sulk. His opponents in the party — and Uma is not the only one — call up journalists to hint Naidu has resigned in a huff.

Even as party spokesmen deny the rumours in Delhi, Uma tells a public gathering in Mathura she is fed up and wants to renounce politics. She changes her tune by the end of the day, but the anti-Uma camp can’t stop sniggering.

Her tamasha, coming so soon after the telephone ‘‘tantrum’’, has destroyed whatever chance she had of getting the top post, they tell you gleefully.

Meanwhile, in another BJP corner
AWAY from the Uma-Venkaiah spat, other skirmishes are gathering strength. Pramod Mahajan, on a visit to Delhi, tells reporters that neither tiranga nor Savarkar are issues in the Maharashtra polls.

If the BJP wins, will he be rewarded in Delhi? Doing well (or badly) in states is hardly a criterion, he suggests. After all, he adds with a touch of sarcasm, the party is full of ‘‘born national leaders’’. The target — ‘‘rootless wonder’’ Arun Jaitley.

The Mahajan camp also makes it clear that in the incipient Uma versus Sushma battle, it is backing Sushma. After Vajpayee and Advani, the ‘‘maximum demand’’ in the Maharashtra polls is for Sushma, they say.

If Pramod is backing Sushma, Jaitley is on Uma’s side — an alliance that dates back to the Madhya Pradesh polls. But Jaitley is also close to Naidu, and Naidu and Uma are at loggerheads.

Er … the Hindu way of strife is a confusing one.

Small squabbles lead to a big picture
SO what really is going on? Is it just a personality clash (Uma versus Venkaiah)? A turf war (Pramod versus Arun)? A battle for the anti-Sonia mantle (Uma versus Sushma)? The making of new alliances (Pramod plus Sushma; Arun plus Uma)?

Or is there a pattern to all this? A big picture framework in which all these smaller squabbles fit in?

Actually, there is. On the face of it, it all began with L.K. Advani’s remark to a TV channel that in case the UPA government lasted it’s full term, then neither Vajpayee nor he would lead the BJP into the next election.

That remark set the cat — several cats as it turned out — among the pigeons. If the party’s ‘‘Big Two’’ were out (and the age factor meant Murli Manohar Joshi would be out too), then one of the younger leaders had a chance.

The current skirmishes between the second-rung leaders, BJP insiders insist, are part of the longterm game. But there is no unanimity over its time-frame. The story, as it stands today, can be summed up as Three Scenarios and Five Contenders.

Scenario one: Venkaiah’s a goner
FORGET 2009, the battle is much closer at hand — to displace Venkaiah Naidu as party president well before he completes his three-year term in early 2007.

One senior BJP leader, who is aloof from the turf wars, said, ‘‘The real issue is the party chief’s post, not who will lead the BJP in 2009. As long as the BJP was in power, the party chief was only a token post. Now we have to untokenise it.’’

According to this view, the party had a string of ‘‘inconsequential’’ leaders — Kushabhau Thakre, Bangaru Laxman, Jana Krishnamurthy, and Venkaiah Naidu — as president because all the important people much preferred being in government. But now that there are no cabinet posts to hanker after, the president’s post has become important once again.

Naidu, having led the party to defeat, is not the right man to lead the party in opposition. ‘‘We need a president who has a vision, who can strategise, who can galvanise the cadre. Naidu can’t do any of this, and therefore the race for an alternative.’’

That race will intensify after the assembly elections early next year — in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Haryana. Naidu is insecure, and his insecurity increased amid reports that Uma Bharati may replace him.

That is why, Uma’s supporters claim, he was keen she return to Madhya Pradesh as chief minister. When that was ruled out, and she took the ‘‘unilateral’’ decision to set off on her yatra, he tried to undermine it.

He is also wary that Pramod Mahajan — in case he delivers Maharashtra — could displace him.

Scenario two: Stick with the lame duck
THE second scenario has a different time-frame. Its proponents agree there is a battle for the top post, but only after Venkaiah Naidu completes his term. ‘‘The game,’’ an insider says, ‘‘is to become president around 2006-2007 because then he (or she) will lead the party in the general election and have a better shot at the prime minister’s post.’’

The Naidu camp is eager to spread this view. Let Mahajan and Jaitley fight among themselves, and may the ‘‘best man win’’ — but only after Naidu’s honourable exit two and a half years from now.

Scenario three: Hot pursuit of proxy power
THIS is a combination of scenarios one and two. As in one, it envisages a change in leadership mid-term — Naidu must yield to a more ‘‘dynamic’’ leader.

But that leader will complete Naidu’s term, just as Naidu completed Bangaru’s 2000-2003 term before getting re-elected for a full term in January 2004). Venkaiah’s successor’s sucessor will be the leader when elections come around.

According to party sources, Mahajan and Jaitley are both keen on becoming party chief after Naidu’s term ends. But in case Naidu is turfed out mid-term, they would like their ‘‘nominees’’ to get his job.

That is where the Uma versus Sushma angle comes in.

But the next Big Two are the women
FOR all its cogency the argument that ‘‘Uma versus Sushma’’ is a proxy war for the bigger Jaitley versus Mahajan battle smacks of being too schematic, and male chauvinist to boot.

Uma could well be a contender even if Venkaiah stays party chief till 2007. In fact, the timing would be perfect if she carries out her plan for a two-year Bharat Gaurav Yatra beginning early 2005. Sushma too would be a strong candidate then, with her middle class appeal and if she manages to get Sangh Parivar backing.

Though the men have their dreams too
THE scenarios might be speculative but the contenders are not. It is an open secret that the four in the race are Mahajan, Jaitley, Sushma and Uma. And the unanimously declared ‘‘dark horse’’ is Rajnath Singh.

Since politics, like life, has a habit of throwing surprises, still darker horses could emerge. But as of now, only the quartet counts.

No one denies there is a race. As Yashwant Sinha told reporters earlier this week, ‘‘There is nothing wrong in being ambitious in politics. But there is a process (through which leaders emerge) in the party. Whoever is thrown up by the process will take up the post.’’

The problem is there are no hard and fast rules in this ‘‘process’’. Mass appeal, organisational skills, proven success and RSS backing do play a role. But given all contenders have some pluses and some minuses, the battle has the potential to get messy.

And diversity may bring its delusions
THERE is another way of looking at the mess. As Siddharta Singh, national media convenor of the BJP says, ‘‘As a party worker, I feel proud we have four to five leaders to choose from. Unlike the Congress or almost all other parties (SP, BSP, RJD, DMK, Shiv Sena) where the leader’s post is always reserved for a member of the leader’s family, in the BJP, people have to work their way up from the grassroots. And one will emerge on top.’’

Since there is no linear path to the top, getting there involves not just ‘‘merit’ and ‘‘hard work’’ but also undercutting rivals. And that is why the Mahajan versus Jaitley versus Sushma versus Uma versus Venkaiah drama promises to be long-running and riveting. Keep watching.