Towards a contrived stability

The relevant consultation paper does categorically suggest the abolition of the first-past-the-post system. The justification it offers is, however, on a higher plane than the BJP’s predicament. It says the wide prevalence of victories on minority vote has, broadly, two adverse effects on the quality of democracy. Firstly, it erodes the representational legitimacy of the first-past-the-post system, leading to political instability. "Whose representatives are such candidates when a majority of voters did not want them?" Secondly, it has created a vested interest for political parties to appeal to narrow loyalties, aggravating the existing cleavages. "Clearly, if a candidate can win on less than one-third share of the votes polled, he does not need to generate a wider appeal." Both these arguments throw light on systemic weaknesses and, as such, nobody can really take exception to them. But the rub lies in what has been offered as an alternative to the first-past-the-post system.

The NCRWC suggests that if no candidate wins a majority of the votes polled in a given constituency, then the one who has got the highest number of votes should not be declared the winner. Instead, the Election Commission should hold a repoll the very next day between the two top candidates of that constituency. Since it is only between two candidates, the winner of what has been described as a "run-off election" is bound to have a "majority vote", i.e. more than 50 per cent of the votes cast in the repoll. Thus, the majority vote attained through the run-off election is purely contrived and the representational legitimacy of the winner is still questionable.

It is, however, unlikely that the BJP will have any such misgivings about the efficacy of the run-off elections. The feasibility of the run-off elections being held within a day of the original poll has already been cleared by the Election Commission. All the constituencies are envisaged to have electronic voting machines, which will, the very same day, show the breakdown of the votes secured by the various candidates. The Election Commission has apparently conveyed that the machines could be adjusted overnight to narrow down the contest to just two candidates for the following day’s repoll.

But there is also a political reason why the idea of run-off elections may find favour with the BJP more than anybody else. The two-candidate contests forced by the run-off elections will, in effect, serve the purpose of the two-party presidential system mooted earlier by the BJP. Given its platform of consolidating the Hindu vote, the BJP has always believed it would have an edge in a straight two-cornered contest. But it had to drop the proposal of switching to the presidential system because of overwhelming opposition from other parties. The run-off elections recommended by the NCRWC now raises the prospect of letting the BJP have the cake and eat it too.

The BJP may find the proposal of run-off elections all the more appealing because it is being offered as a package deal designed to strengthen political stability. The suggestions made by the NCRWC include an amendment to the anti-defection law so as to bind all the parties and their legislators to their pre-poll alliance. This should come as a God-send to a party that has a record of being constantly blackmailed by allies.

The NCRWC has also very helpfully proposed repeal of the recognition given to the splits engineered by at least one third of the legislators of any party in the Lok Sabha or the state assembly. As if that was not enough, the NCRWC has suggested that no Opposition party be allowed to move a no-confidence motion unless it was in a position to give evidence of a viable alternative. All this emphasis laid on political stability by the NCRWC may well translate into a prescription to help the BJP gain a firmer hold over the levers of power.