To counter Gen’s bluster, PM may appeal to Hurriyat

He will issue an appeal to all political groupings and to the people of J&K to participate. He will reiterate last year’s I-Day promise of ‘‘free and fair’’ elections.

This is likely to be followed by an assurance of an open-ended dialogue after the polls, but the Prime Minister will make it clear that talks will be only with elected representatives. This would be a veiled warning to the separatists that they will be excluded from future discussions unless they contest this time.

Given the high stakes on the elections, Vajpayee will devote nearly half his speech to Kashmir and the entire gamut of related issues, from Indo-Pak relations to cross-border terrorism. The drought stalking the country will be the main focus of the rest of his speech. The communal violence in Gujarat will also figure but the Prime Minister is unlikely to say more than describe it as ‘‘unfortunate’’.

He is unlikely to stray from stated Indian positions on Kashmir and Pakistan. The stress will be more on nuancing them carefully to send the correct signals on the eve of a crucial election.

Although official sources maintained that Vajpayee will not make a point-by-point rebuttal of Musharraf’s rhetoric on Kashmir, he will have to take note of what the Pakistani President said in his Independence Day address in Islamabad and respond accordingly.

For instance, while Musharraf tried to shrug off the onus for a peaceful election in J & K, Vajpayee can be expected to try and put the ball back in his court with a call for vigilance against Pakistan’s attempts to disrupt the polls.

The Prime Minister’s speech may come as a disappointment to interlocutors like Kashmir Committee convenor Ram Jethmalani who has been pressing for a firm offer of a dialogue with the separatists.

In fact, Jethmalani is believed to have telephoned Vajpayee yesterday to urge him to be more forthcoming in his Independence Day address. His point was that a strong message from the Centre on August 15 would give a fillip to his talks with separatists groups in Srinagar, beginning the next day.

Unfortunately, the Government remains hesitant to walk that extra mile, largely because it feels the signals from the Valley have not been positive enough.

In fact, Vajpayee has been unable to make his promised political mission to Srinagar because of the failure to secure an assured critical mass of separatist participation in the elections despite strong public support from the US for the polls.

The Independence Day address is his last resort, but with his Kashmir initiative petering out, his hands are tied. Vajpayee may prefer to play safe by walking the middle path between the hawks and the doves.