The perception is that we have not performed well, that the economy has not stabilised or recovered from recession, that people's welfare has not improved, that Pakistan is isolated internationally, that there is a flight of capital and an exodus of entrepreneurs from the country.'' Thus General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's latest dictator, summarised what his many critics feel about his first year in office, before denouncing such views as ``malicious propaganda spread by external foes and internal vested interests.'' If only it were so simple. For almost half of the 53 years since independence, Pakistan has been ruled by the army. It seized power for the fourth time on October 12, 1999, after General Musharraf and a couple of top lieutenants had been sacked by the elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. Mr Sharif, his two brothers and a son, are in prison, and the general's record since then has been decidedly mixed. In his defence this week, General Musharraf rattled off impressive statistics at machinegun speed - privatisation would yield $4 billion, tax revenues and exports were bang on target, 4,000 sick industries were about to be revived, action plans for the spread of information technology were steaming ahead. Meanwhile, the opposition declared October 12 a ``black day''. About 100 of its members were arrested to forestall protests. The cover of the latest issue of Newsline magazine is headlined ``General Discontent''. It is true that, on some measures, the economy is looking a bit perkier than it did under Mr Sharif. Growth seems to be picking up, and could top 5 per cent in the current fiscal year, though this is mostly due to a bumper cotton crop and a consequent boost to the textile industry, which accounts for 60 per cent of Pakistan's export earnings. The rice and wheat crops have also been excellent. Industrial output growth is down, though. In other ways, Pakistan's economic woes have not shown much improvement. Pakistan has failed to persuade the IMF to hand over any fresh money since April, and is unlikely to do so until the government comes up with a system for casting the tax net more widely. At the moment, barely 1 per cent of the country's population of 150 million pay any tax at all. When the government tried to impose a 15 per cent across-the-board sales tax, strikes by shopkeepers forced it to back down and amend much of the scheme. This same pattern of unwillingness to risk confrontation, perhaps surprising in a military regime, has produced a series of concessions to Islamic groups, including a recent climbdown on an attempt to repeal a blasphemy law. But without the badge of approval conferred by a new IMF loan, Pakistan will be unable to persuade its creditors to reschedule its remaining debt, or to renew the existing moratorium on most of it, which is due to expire at the end of the year. If that happens, Pakistan could face repayments of $4.5 billion in 2001. Its available foreign-exchange reserves are only about $600 million. Probably no more urgent task was expected from the general than a crackdown on corruption. Here again the record is mixed. The National Accountability Bureau has extended its remit and taken on another 100-odd cases, securing about 40 convictions. But it has fought shy of tackling either the army or the judiciary, despite serious allegations of bribe-taking. One case before the bureau involves a former naval chief, but this was launched by Mr Sharif, and the man in question is, in any event, safely ensconced in America..Excerpted from `Pakistan's useless dictator', `The Economist', October 14
