The old man and the trap

As far as I know, the Karunakaran group can muster no more than 26 votes in the Kerala Assembly, a House with a strength of 140. That, at any rate, was the number of votes in favour of Kodoth Govindan Nair, the rebel candidate put up by Karunakaran earlier this year in the Rajya Sabha polls against the official Congress candidates, Vayalar Ravi and Balakrishna Pillai. At the time, the Left Democratic Front put up its own candidate rather than choosing to ally with K. Karunakaran. In the Ernakulam Lok Sabha by-poll, both sides proved that they had learned their lesson — and joined hands, in an unstated but universally accepted alliance — to defeat the Congress’s candidate.

In retrospect, it might have been easier had Sonia Gandhi taken disciplinary action against Karunakaran six months ago. But she had been confidently assured that the old man could muster no more than 20 votes. (One leader told her that it would be as few as 18!) The fact that he went on to get 26 was enough to discomfit the Congress boss since it meant that he probably had the numbers to split the Congress Legislative Party in Kerala. The dithering has not solved anything, merely postponing the decision until a date and a time of Karunakaran’s choosing.

It is, however, open to question whether Karunakaran will actually possess the support of all those 26 legislators when the day dawns. Even at the time of the Rajya Sabha elections, it was rumoured that at least one of those 26 votes had come from a rebel in the ranks of the Left Democratic Front. Today, it is being speculated that as many as three of them might have been from outside the United Democratic Front. Even assuming that all the 26 were Congressmen, I wonder how many would choose to defect and form a new party. I know of at least two who back the veteran only as long as he chooses to remain within the fold of the Congress. (On the other hand, there are supposed to be three United Democratic Front legislators who would be willing to leave.)

But, irrespective of the exact figure, simple arithmetic dictates that Karunakaran cannot form a ministry without the active support of his old foes in the Marxist camp. So what conditions might the rulers of the Left impose?

So far, the demands of the Left have been surprisingly restrained. It is rumoured that the Marxists could go so far as to waive any right to a ministerial seat, leaving it to Karunakaran to distribute the goodies of office to his own supporters. This, of course, could be construed as an open invitation to defection: cross the floor and become a minister! Kerala, in other words, could soon see a jumbo ministry of its own following the pattern set in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Of course, Kerala, being a smaller state, does not elect as many people to its Assembly, but that’s a different matter…

There is a move to restrict the size of ministries to a certain fixed proportion of the total strength of the Lower House. (I have read figures ranging from 10 per cent to 15 per cent.) At present, Kerala has 18 ministers, which is quite acceptable. But I doubt that there would be any public outcry even if Karunakaran were to breach that unstated limit, and come up with a ministry with a strength of, say, 21 — still within the 15 per cent limit. Add the posts of speaker and deputy speaker — both of whom have the status of a minister — and almost everyone who crosses the floor with Karunakaran could enjoy the perks of office. And then, of course, there all those chairmanships of corporations to fill.

But can Karunakaran trust the CPI(M) to fulfil its end of the devil’s bargain? Surely he remembers the way Indira Gandhi treated Chaudhary Charan Singh, and how the Congress threw Chandrashekhar, H.D. Deve Gowda, and I.K. Gujral to the wolves. What would prevent the Marxists from pulling the red carpet from under Karunakaran’s feet?

Politics makes strange bedfellows, but few as strange surely as the Marxists cuddling up to Karunakaran. The only thing stranger would be to see Antony and Karunakaran billing and cooing!