The murmuring class

At one end of the scale are those who believe that uninformed spoilsports are making too much of American softness for Musharraf.

That there is a certain inevitability about economic and political linkages raising Indo-US relations to a height from where occasional carelessness by the world’s sole super power will become a sort of tolerable nuisance. This lot believes it has the inside track on the larger American gameplan by virtue of its access to powerful elements in the American establishment at seminars and think-tanks.

The second category, mostly the political class, including members of the ruling party who distrust Americans intrinsically, have not recovered from Cold War habits but believe that there is no alternative to building bridges with the sole super power.

This group also has in its ranks pragmatists who see long term salvation in a strategic partnership but without giving up on countless other foreign policy options. These options must be pursued vigorously. Take Britain’s relations with Iran, for instance. Despite being USA’s closest ally, Britain is pursuing an independent policy towards Teheran.

New Delhi’s relations with Teheran, likewise, are strong and improving despite the US counting Iran among the ‘axis of evil’. And yet these independent policy options are exercised by New Delhi with just sufficient caution.

When Petroleum Minister Ram Naik recently visited Iraq, the ministry of external affairs had to weigh the issue carefully. On the one hand is the consideration that Iraq has been the solitary Arab country which has consistently supported India’s case on Kashmir since 1973.

On the other hand is the US planning to topple President Saddam Hussain. Ram Naik did meet Hussain but the visit was discreetly played down.

The extreme right wing of the Sangh Parivar sees America’s war against terrorism as a Godsend for India as well as Israel, two countries surrounded by Muslims and bound by that fact. It is here that General Musharraf emerges as the fly in the ointment, for this group.

Since September 11, Indo-US relations across the board have been afflicted by a paradox. Military and technical co-ordination (joint military drill in Agra recently is to be followed up by joint exercises in Alaska), intelligence sharing in the war against terror have raised the equation to an unprecedented level.

How does one square this with the fact that in the vanguard of America’s war against terrorism is Pakistan which has sponsored cross-border terrorism against India for 12 years at least?

Americans say they have extracted from Musharraf a commitment to end for ever cross-border terrorism.

Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage went public with the commitment the Pakistanis hoped would remain confidential for the time being. Hence Musharraf’s retraction in his Newsweek interview. This too has been rebutted by Washington. Moreover, India’s coercive diplomacy has paid off: the world now accepts India’s complaint and phraseology — cross-border terrorism.

The focus now is on Kashmir — the devolution package and free and fair elections. In the diplomatic community there is an optimistic acceptance of L K Advani’s elevation as deputy prime minister, just as there is considerable enthusiasm on Arun Jaitley’s appointment as the interlocutor for Kashmir.

If free and fair elections can be held in Kashmir, the way could well be paved for a general relaxation of tensions in the subcontinent. But who can ensure absence of violence?

Well, to the extent that Pakistan can help minimise violence in J&K, Musharraf must be leaned on. Can India give him some face saver? An Indian High Commissioner to Islamabad has been named.

This could pave the way for the three used Airbuses New Delhi is gifting Kabul to fly directly to Bagram, rather than skirt the Pakistani air space. External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha may travel to Kabul for the occasion.

But the hurt in New Delhi is deep. Western financial, political, military assistance to Pakistan grows and the travel advisory is in place. So, the ‘murmuring’ will continue harmlessly for a while but, who knows, over a period of time it will begin to take its toll.