The interim mess in Iraq

Secretary of State Colin Powell has said that the Interim Authority will not have a veto on the multinational forces. However, should the Interim Government set up under the UN Security Council request the forces to withdraw, the forces shall leave. Does this mean that the Interim Government — sworn in in Baghdad’s Green Zone (where the Occupation Authority resides) on June 1, in the presence of Lakhdar Brahimi — can “grant” or “withdraw consent” as far as the foreign forces are concerned? Not at all. The Interim Government has come into being in a peculiar way: The Iraqi Governing Council has simply shuffled off its name and called itself the Interim Government which will take over sovereignty from the Occupying Authority on June 30.

But surely the UN’s special envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, had a role in selecting the Interim Government’s president, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawar and his prime minister, Iyad Allawi, and the rest of the government? Yes, Brahimi did play a role, but not as UN special envoy. He was present in Baghdad at America’s request to somehow bring into being the Interim Government! He would have played his role as the UN special envoy if the Security Council resolution had been passed. But this resolution was in a jam because China, France and Russia did not go along with the concept of a sovereign Iraqi government having no authority on the multinational forces.

What should be the equation between the interim sovereign entity and the forces? This is the Gordian knot the Anglo-American duet, on the hand, and the others, on the other, are sorting out in New York. Legally, there is no legitimacy available to the entity sworn in on June 1. That al-Yawar and Allawi are being described as president and prime minister “designate” adds a comic touch because they had already been sworn in. When Brahimi appeared on the podium, flanked by these two personalities, he refused to take questions. “These are my orders,” he said. Who was he taking orders from: Kofi Annan or Paul Bremer? The next day he clarified the picture. “Paul Bremer is the dictator of Iraq — he has the money, he has the signature”.

At this point one is not even taking into account facts like Allawi’s background. Most Arab newspaper carried headlines: ‘CIA agent to become Iraq Prime Minister’. All of this against the background of Abu Ghraib, deaths in custody, the serial revelations about Ahmed Chalabi, the perverse genius who conned the world’s mightiest power into a war it does not know how to get out of, and, of course, the car bombs and daily casualties. The catch is this. Somehow an equation has to be struck between the Interim Government and the multinational forces. Americans would like to place the guns on Iraqi shoulders until the US elections in November. That’s the crux of the matter.

A duet is on its way to New York from Baghdad: Brahimi, who wore his private hat at American instance in Baghdad. He will don his UN special envoy hat when he reaches New York. In tow is Mohammad el Zebari, the Kurd foreign minister of the Governing Council, overnight transformed into foreign minister “designate” of the Interim Government. The two, along with Secretary General Kofi Annan and members of the Security Council, will go into retreat. The idea is that the Interim Government, by an exchange of letters with CENTCOM, sows the seeds of some sort of a relationship which can be legitimised by the UN on or before June 30.

This is what the intense diplomatic pressure is all about. US and British diplomats are lobbying with foreign offices around the globe to somehow “welcome” the government brought into being in Baghdad on June 1. These “welcome” statements will be flaunted at the Security Council.

What should New Delhi do? Indeed, what would the NDA have done? Well, supposing Jaswant Singh were the deciding authority, he would have jumped queues to “welcome” the Baghdad government because he always believed that India’s national interests are best served if they are consistent with US national interests. A. B. Vajpayee would have waited for the mist to lift from the convoluted games being played at the UN before expressing his view. But which way will the UPA cookie crumble?