With his announcement that he will not run for re-election Jacques Chirac has set the stage for a discussion about how his successor can shape the European Union’s future direction. Be it the contender of the Right, Nicholas Sarkozy, Socialist candidate Segolene Royal, or Centrist Francois Bayrou, all will face three major challenges in European politics. First, the question about whether the ‘European model’ of a social welfare state is capable of competing in an increasingly globalising world economy. Second, the malaise following the refusal of the European Constitution by French and Dutch voters in 2005 leaves the question unanswered: To what extent is the EU capable of acting in a collective manner? A reanimation of the traditional French-German axis could speed up the EU’s policy-making process. Third, France will have to reformulate its own, and by that token, Europe’s foreign policy.Despite the setback in the process of integration after the 2005 referendum, there’s an unbowed belief in the common European undertaking among French politicians and citizens. Accurately speaking, that belief will continue as long as Europe’s basic political consensus coincides with the French convictions the way it used to in the past decades. Thus, in the French self-perception, Europe sticks out as a laudable counter-example of what other big powers stand for: Opposite to the American laissez-faire policy, the EU advocates its concept of a strong state providing basic social security. Whereas Putin’s Russia continues to move steadily on its path towards authoritarianism, Europe preens itself on its democratic achievements including its democratising influence on non-EU members like Ukraine and Turkey. And while China keeps on accelerating its breathtaking economic progress irrespective of the alarming social and ecological effects, Europe claims to play a leading role in the field of labour laws and environmental protection. But before exaggerating EU’s attractiveness as a role model and calling for ‘making the world more European’ one should take a closer look at the ground realities in European politics that eventually play a decisive role in the French electoral campaign. Even though the EU still has a great economic appeal for Eastern European states like the new members Bulgaria and Romania, there are doubts about EU’s long-term economic competitiveness. As a report released by the European Commission in February points out, the quality of life has come under pressure due to prevalent unemployment and increasing poverty in Europe’s ageing societies. It is becoming clear that Sarkozy’s attitude towards the reform of the welfare state is not far from those of Blair and Merkel and turns away from the traditional French affinity to Leftist policy. Under his authority, France is likely to follow the German example of moderate economic liberalisation and deregulation. By contrast, Royal promises a higher minimum wage, a raise in state pensions and similar boons to the electorate, basically relying on the hope that higher economic growth will provide for the required resources. One feature of French economic policy that is unlikely to change is the state’s protective hand in support of pivotal national industries. This interventionist way of privileging its own industrial champions continues to worry France’s European neighbours, especially Germany. It is a long time since France and Germany, under the visionary leadership of duos like Adenauer and de Gaulle or Kohl and Mitterand, served as boosters of European reconciliation and unification. Then, the Soviet threat necessitated a close European cooperation. Today, a more pragmatic stance in bilateral relations has prevailed. The unifying factors are almost restricted to foreign policy issues like the common rejection of the war in Iraq and the joint efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Arguably, climate change could evolve as a similar ‘external’ threat necessitating a concerted action.In the field of European foreign policy, the first issue for the next French president is whether the EU should assume responsibility for more independent military commitments similar to the one in the DR Congo. The second task, a substantial improvement of relations with the US, is more likely to happen with Sarkozy than with socialist Royal. Ultimately, the next president will have to realise that French foreign policy — in spite of its puissant nuclear arsenal and the image of French grandeur — will have to be embedded in a European approach.The problems that need be solved in the post-Chirac era have accumulated and provide the opportunity for the next French leader to distinguish himself or herself as the eminent European reformer. The writer is studying South Asian politics at the University of Heidelberg
