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Taking a long, hard look at the results of the Indian Express-NDTV-AC Nielsen pre-election opinion poll, two strong messages emerge. One, India needs coalitions; two, India wants leadership. The first is old hat. Coalition politics is the great Indian reality for the foreseeable future. The BJP’s fortunes seem as rosy as they have ever been and, yet, as per the opinion poll, the party cannot hope to cross 200 seats on its own, 72 short of the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha. For the Congress, state alliances shore up what is a grim individual position, with India’s once-natural ruling party hard put to reach three figures. If anything, the poll is an indicator that the Congress should have started working on its coalitions much earlier than it did.

That truism apart, the poll points to a more piquant public perception of leadership and of prime ministers in Indian history. Atal Behari Vajpayee’s contemporary domination is acknowledged but he finishes a distant second to both Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, when respondents are asked to choose between them. Even so, he runs Rajiv Gandhi very close — the younger man winning 46 per cent to 42 per cent — and trounces P.V. Narasimha Rao in a 72-13 per cent no-contest. The reasons are not difficult to guess. Of the five prime ministers in contention, Rao was probably the most erudite — though eminent Nehruvians may disagree — but undoubtedly the least charismatic, a poor public communicator. What is the lesson from this? Simply, if coalitions reflect the natural state of the Indian polity, the search for the uber leader articulates the voter’s quest for good, stable government. Paradoxically, today’s political parties need to build alliances as intensely as they need to present the people with a face that can draw the incremental vote in increasingly presidential-style elections.

What does India look for in a leader? Charisma, of course — but like Nehru, he should have the instincts of an avuncular institution builder, a big picture man; like Indira, a steely “India first” resolve; like Rajiv, the freshness of both ideas and intentions; like Vajpayee, a consensual, problem-solving approach, combined with the ability to delegate. Above all, the leader should evoke a certain trust in his voter. Rao scored reasonably on most parameters, but ended up neglecting that final one. On his part, Vajpayee is a beneficiary of recent history. Both Rajiv and V.P. Singh started with enormous goodwill but ended up letting down key constituencies. The farcical prime ministries of the United Front years (1996-98) left the electorate searching for a reassuring elder, rather than an experimental maverick. In the process, India rediscovered the virtues of leadership.