Attempts to reduce complex social phenomena to a set of numbers rarely produce reliable insights. Without a sense of history, it is down right dangerous to rate viability of nation states in terms of quantifiable parameters. The latest example is the annual “failed states index” from the US-based Fund for Peace which has dramatically elevated the risk for state failure in Pakistan. The Fund has been alarmist in pushing Pakistan up from 34th place last year to the ninth this year. Among the reasons cited are Pakistan’s inability to control its border areas with Afghanistan and rising ethnic tensions. The Fund needs to get its history of Pakistan’s western frontiers right.Neither British India nor its successor Pakistan have ever exercised full sovereignty over the borderlands with Afghanistan. Under pressure from the US and the international community, Pakistan is in fact trying for the first time in six decades to actually assert its authority in the tribal areas. Whether it succeeds or not is a different question, but the very attempt itself is a positive development. As the notion of “failed states” emerges as an important factor in understanding the new threats to global security, it is dangerous to mistake the inevitable problems that arise amidst creating nation-states out of territories and the specific danger of state collapse.Neither in Pakistan nor elsewhere in the subcontinent is the situation comparable to that of Somalia where the state just withered away. Pakistan has a strong state built around the army which is in no danger of losing control. The main problem has been its deliberate instrumentalisation of religious extremism and terrorism for political gains over the last 30 years. The international community’s challenge in Pakistan is to wean the army away from this habit. While the Fund’s numbers might give India a false sense of pride, its real task lies in taking the leadership to move Pakistan and the rest of the region towards economic integration, collective prosperity and cooperative problem-solving.
