Crowds don't mean numbers in east UPYou don't have to be a psephologist to gauge the public mood in Padrauna. You don't even need calculators to establish the caste configuration and their political loyalties. In eastern UP, everyone has all such information on the fingertips. Caste is the dominant factor in any political discussion. Neither Kargil nor Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin matters here. The state of the country's economy also doesn't concern them. It's caste all the way.``The people here don't have jobs and loitering idly they discuss only politics or cricket,'' says S.P. Tripathi, a college lecturer. ``People here are probably better informed about cricket than you.''This is despite the fact that the average literacy in the region is less than 30 per cent and per capita income is less than Rs 700 per month. Though the land is fertile, people do not have large landholdings and almost half of the area is inevitably submerged under flood water during monsoon.Because of the high levelof unemployment, the public meetings of almost all leaders draw huge crowds. ``The same people go to listen to various leaders but rarely change their political preferences,'' says Rajeshwar Yadav, a betel-shop owner in Padrauna. As Wing Commander Satish Sharma, a helicopter pilot who has flown leaders of almost all parties, points out, the crowd around a leader's chopper is even bigger, particularly if the landing site is away from the venue.People candidly share their views with others. Like Gauri Chandra of Garhrampur village said, after a public meeting addressed by the Prime Minister at Deoria: ``He managed to sway 20 per cent of the fence-sitting electorate.'' Ram Krishna Upadhyay of Puraini felt the upper castes, so far divided between SP, Congress and BJP, would rally behind BJP candidate Prakash Mani Tripathi after Atal's appeal. Another villager felt that voters had already made up their mind and would not be influenced by last-minute appeals.Sriram, an old farmer in Domariaganj, has no doubtabout which way people will vote: ``The Muslims are divided between SP and BSP. The Brahmins are angry with BJP candidate Ram Pal Singh but will ultimately vote for him because of the Atal effect. The Kurmis, Rajputs and Banias are with BJP while the Yadavs are as solidly behind SP as the Dalits behind BSP.'' And the Congress? ``It has a marginal presence.''But ask him about his own choice and he clams up. That's true for most of the people, but you can ascertain their leanings from their observations and caste. Sriram is a Kurmi and it is clear that he favours the BJP.Radheshyam is a Dalit of Amardobha village in Khalilabad. At the very outset, he says: ``We are landless. Mayawati has given us land. She also brought electricity to our village.'' All the 450 Harijans in the village are BSP supporters. Does that mean that whosoever develops the village gets the vote? Radheshyam ponders for a while before mumbling, ``Ee to pradhan batahin (only the village head can answer that).''At Dhodhanya village,this reporter's car is mistaken for a campaign vehicle. An old lady sitting outside her thatched house refuses to disclose her name or the party she is going to vote for. ``Kachu dus-bees deo to batai,'' (Give me Rs 10-20 for that) she says. Clearly the people here have got used to getting their palm greased for their votes.On the other hand, no candidate or even his campaign workers have ever visited Bardiha village in Bansgaon constituency simply because this village, like at least half-a-dozen other villages in Diara area near Barhalganj, is inaccessible by road. You have to traverse through marshy areas on foot, take a boat and ride a bullock cart to reach here. The villagers are aware of the elections but do not know the issues or for that matter even the names of the candidates. ``We will vote as per instructions of the village head of our community,'' says Bhagirathi, a shepherd.