Many banks and institutions have announced that post Diwali, home loan rates will go up. Will this finally put an end to the home loan party? What will be the quantum of rise?
Indeed, we foresee that the interest rates on home loans would rise in the near future, as the base interest rates in the economy as well as the spreads are bound to increase. The increase in rates will be nominal when compared with the fall in rates over the years. We always felt that the spreads offered by some of the players in the industry were unsustainable. However, we feel that the increase in the interest rates is not going to significantly impact the affordability for the borrowers. The EMI for a loan of Rs 5 lakh taken for 15 years will increase by Rs 300, if the interest rates go up from 7.50 per cent to 8.50 per cent.
What should be the strategy for the individual who is interested in investing in a house post Diwali?
We feel that an individual, generally, is not in a position to take a long term call on interest rates. Since most of the income of the individual is not linked to the interest rates in the economy they should opt for the fixed rates. During the lifecycle of a loan, the borrower is expected to witness a change in direction of rate movement at least three or four times. Therefore it is not advisable to switch from one type to the other very frequently. However, if the quantum of downward movement in interest rates is substantial, the borrower can always negotiate and re-substitute the rates.
There is a marked upward pressure on rates. Against this background, do you see any rise in deposit rates in the coming month?
Yes, the deposit rates are also likely to increase in the future. A number of banks have already increased the deposit rates marginally.
Is there any possibility of general lending rates also going up following this trend, if so to what extend is the lending rates expected to go up? Is the hike in home loan rates indicative of an impending hike in personal loans, car loans and loan against property rates also? If so, then by how much?
The general lending rates in the economy have already firmed up in the last six months. Ten-year government securities rates have gone up from around 5.25 per cent to 6.75 per cent points in the last six months. The spreads on the personal and car loans were relatively high as compared to home loans and therefore the pressure to increase the rates would be relatively less. However, if the increase in the interest rates is substantial, the rates are likely to increase on other products as well.
What are the factors influencing the hike in interest rates? Are these long-term factors or short-term changes in the economy?
The general interest rates in the economy are going up primarily on account of inflation fuelled by substantial increase in global oil prices. Also for most of the players, the spreads in housing finance activity had become too low to take care of the credit quality of the portfolio. Further, as mentioned by the Governor of RBI in the current credit policy, there are concerns over the asset bubble forming in real estate markets and the credit quality of the home loan portfolio of banks. Therefore Reserve Bank has taken certain measures which would lead to an increase in the interest rates.