NEW DELHI, FEB 28: The Economic Survey (1999-2000) today predicted a four million tonne fall in foodgrain production at 199.1 mt in the current fiscal mainly due to erratic rainfall and asked government to shift agriculture support from subsidies to investment.Emphasising the need for effective public programmes for irrigation, agricultural research and rural credit for more rapid growth, the Survey said existing policies must be reformed to encourage more private investment in areas such as irrigation, storage and transportation.Noting that the public investment in agriculture has been declining in 1990s, it said there was a need to shift the emphasis of public support for agriculture from subsidies to investment in rural and agricultural infrastructure and effective research and extension.It further said that with the removal of exports and import controls on agricultural products and their replacement by a rational and stable tariff structure, sharp fluctuations in agricultural prices arising from domestic supply shocks could be greatly moderated.The survey projected a sharp decline in the growth rate of agriculture and allied sector at 0.8 per cent during the current fiscal compared to 7.2 per cent in 1998-99.Expressing concern over lower growth in foodgrain production, the survey said overall growth rate has decelerated to 1.80 per cent per annum during the nineties which is just equal to annual population growth."Higher growth of the economy can be sustained only if agriculture and allied activities grow at an average annual rate of four per cent," it said adding the policy framework must encourage high investment in rural assets and supportive infrastructure to ensure targeted growth.The survey estimated that rice production would go up by 1.7 per cent to 87.5 MT in 1999-2000 against 86 MT in the previous year. However, production of wheat, coarse cereals and pulses would decline by 2.9 per cent, 7.0 per cent and 8.2 per cent respectively to 68.7 MT, 29.2 mt and 13.5 mt.Oilseeds production would drop by 14.2 per cent to 21.6 mt during the reference period against 25.2 mt in the last fiscal.The survey estimated an increase of 14.3 per cent in fertiliser subsidy to Rs 13,250 crore during 1999-2000 including Rs 8,000 crore for indigeneously produced fertilisers, mostly urea.
