NEW DELHI, JULY 21: North Block is in a tizzy over a pre-election survey by a US-based firm that was handed over to Union Home Minister L K Advani last week. The first part of the survey was carried out when the Kargil conflict was yet to pick up. That painted a dismal picture for both the Congress and the BJP. But the second survey carried out in the post-Kargil period gave the BJP 187 seats, its allies 97 and the Congress a poor 117.The surveys were conducted by Mack International Private Limited (MIPL) which has a branch office in south Delhi but primarily operates from Los Angeles. Home Ministry sources refused to confirm whether the surveys were commissioned by the Government or were an independent effort.MIPL's Indian representative G K Nath said the reports were submitted to Advani but declined to elaborate.The outcome for the first phase was another hung Parliament. It showed that both the BJP and the Congress would have lost considerable ground. While the BJP would have won 169 Lok Sabhaseats (a fall of 12 from its existing 181 seats), the Congress's position would have been equally unenviable. The party, under Sonia Gandhi, would have lost 15 seats and emerged a runner-up with a tally of 125.But Kargil changed all that, says the poll. According to its ``revised'' findings, the Congress in the post-Kargil phase will get 117 seats while the BJP's tally will swing to a comfortable 187. It has also predicted 97 seats for the BJP's allies and 25 for those allying with the Congress.Nath said 25,025 voters were contacted by 165 surveyors. As for its sampling process, the survey covered 102 Lok Sabha constituencies in 12 states and was based on a sample of 2,275 voters from urban and rural areas.Maratha leader Sharad Pawar, the survey maintains, will emerge as a force to reckon with by claiming his pound of flesh from the Congress. The report has predicted a rout for the Congress in Maharashtra. The party, which has 33 out of 48 seats now, is expected to get only eight.The Congress,according to the survey, also stands to lose five seats each in Rajasthan and Assam but will gain seven seats in Uttar Pradesh.The survey also tried to check out on people's choice of the Prime Minister. And even here, the findings may seem a bit convoluted to some: In the pre-Kargil phase while 40 per cent chose Atal Behari Vajpayee, Sharad Pawar came second with 18 per cent and L K Advani third with 16 per cent. Sonia Gandhi was a poor fourth; the survey said only 14 per cent of the people want her as PM.However, post-Kargil, Vajpayee strengthened his position with 42 per cent, Advani got 19 per cent and Pawar finished third with 18 per cent.Sonia, the survey says, emerged as the least popular for Prime Minister by another indication. In contrast to 12 per cent of people who said `yes' to the question whether they accepted her as the PM in the post-Kargil survey, 49 per cent came out with an emphatic `no'.
