Safety first? No longer

On the face of it, this is just another statistic in the fascinating world of cricket trivia. It can be seen as a by-product of the more noticeable phenomenon, the increase in the number of Tests producing results.

Certainly, there are no obvious patterns in the results (see box). Sometimes, the turnaround is due to a one-off, brilliant performance by an individual — Lara’s 153 not out versus Australia; Muralitharan’s 16 wickets against England, or VVS Laxman’s 281 against the Aussies.

On occasion, it’s just a big team raising its game, mid-Test, against weak opposition — India against Bangladesh at Dhaka and Zimbabwe in Delhi in the 2000-01 season. And then, there are the second innings collapses — the most recurring theme.

Cricket commentator Harsha Bhogle, however, finds at least one thread connecting the recent occurrences: fast batting. ‘‘Batting has become very free. The run rate has increased dramatically: where scoring 400 would earlier take two days, it is now often done in a day and a session. I can’t say for sure if it’s an impact of one-day cricket, but certainly more teams play for results these days, which becomes possible because teams bat at more than three runs an over these days. Teams like Australia usually score at around four, as did England and South Africa in their series.’’

This translates into a lot more time for results, even for the team batting second. Top-order batsmen still prefer to get their eye in but for every Dravid there are more Jayasuriyas, Gilchrists and Sehwags.

This is the case right through the order, including in the opening slots, where previously teams would prefer a Boycott-Brearley pairing. Srikkanth was an exception through the 1980s but he would appear the norm today among Gayle, Hinds, Hayden, Langer, Trescothick, Jayasuriya, Sehwag, Astle, Gibbs…

And even the more ‘serious’ (read: technically equipped) batsmen aren’t slouches — Tendulkar, Lara, Ponting, Sarwan, Fleming, Inzamam, Smith, Hussain, Vaughan…the list goes on.

Right, so that explains why there are more results in Tests. What about the team batting second winning? Well, logically speaking, the time factor increases the probability of a result and therefore the team batting second also has a higher probability of winning.

Ask former Indian captain and chief of selectors Chandu Borde. ‘‘Pitches are now covered, they don’t deteriorate as quickly as they once did. They also cut the grass everyday in most places across the world, which makes it easier for batting. You’ll see that when the team batting first have scored 400, more often than not, the opponents have also scored around that mark. 400 remains a good score, but not as safe.’’

Sensible of course, and it ties up with the statistics; but not conclusive.

Time to bring out that old chestnut, the impact of limited-overs cricket on Test cricket. Apart from raising the run-rate, it has also made teams more adept at chasing totals. Getting 300+ in the fourth innings isn’t as tough now given the one-day practice. It’s a possibility, says former India opener Arun Lal. ‘‘ODI batting has influenced Test batting in a big way, be it in the attitude of the batsmen or in the lack of aggressiveness in bowlers. In that sense, maybe this is true. But then again, these things would depend entirely on the pitches. And if it is true, then I think it’s fantastic for Test cricket.’’

Adding to Lal’s opinion is Syed Kirmani. Kirmani feels, ‘‘I think cricketers, and teams as a whole, have become more professional. There is more at stake today than in our time, and I think that is a reason. Even if a team is set a winning target of 350 or so, they never seem to think that they are out of it. They chase down big targets and do it quickly. And even if they can’t, they make an effort.’’

Add to that the fact that most leading cricket teams these days either have an official psychologist or use various other strategies to improve the mental toughness of players. ‘‘Positive thinking’’ as Kirmani says — it might be playing a part as well.

As mentioned, it’s almost impossible to formulate a foolproof theory in this context. What is undeniably true today is that even if a team does pile up the runs, all four (win, loss, tie, draw) results are possible in 21st century cricket. In his classic Farewell to Cricket, Sir Donald Bradman had these words of advice: If you win the toss, bat. If you are in doubt, think about it, and then bat. If you are still not sure, speak to a colleague and then bat.

To that, add this: Bat, but don’t expect to win…