Resistance surprises, holds up allied troops

In a fierce battle on Tuesday between 30 American AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and the Medina Division of the Republican Guards outside Karbala, the Iraqis managed to down one and severely damage another.

The intensity of the battle near Karbala has been further influenced by a severe dust storm on Tuesday which brought visibility to less than 20 metres forcing the advance of the American armour and supporting elements to a ‘crawl’. Air support to the ground forces was naturally affected adversely. Current indications are that the dust storm may actually intensify in the next couple of days.

Satellite pictures indicate a low-pressure area and widespread clouding in the region. If that happens, US advance would be severely affected. This by itself does not amount to much and has been experienced very often in wars. The problem may come from the fact that the dust storm came in the region of Karbala-Najaf-Hilla, and is likely to be seen and interpreted by the Iraqis as a divine intervention on their behalf. This may well provide a powerful boost to the morale of Iraqis and their fighting forces.

Reports that Saddam Hussein has moved another Republican Guard Division forward south may also be driven by the same belief, reinforced by the military calculation that Turkey’s refusal to allow US forces through its territory has reduced the size of the force that could threaten Baghdad from the north. Concurrently, Anglo-American forces continued to face some of the severest fighting around the southern city of Nasiriya.

Here the opposition has been coming from Iraqi militias belonging to the 60,000 strong Fidayeen force commanded by Saddam Hussein’s son, Uday. Nearly 1,000 of these fighters are believed to be in Southern Iraq. These Fidayeen forces emerged as a new unexpected threat to the US advance. US military officers in the area have been reported to say that they ‘did not expect them to be so aggressive’.

These are the Iraqi forces who have pursued guerrilla tactics to hit US forces in Nasiriya area where the US established control over the key bridges on the Euphrates River. Further south, the city of Basra has yet to be fully secured and efforts to extinguish the fires in oil wells have been thwarted. The British have declared the city of Basra as a ‘military target’ after Iraqi army was observed to take up fighting positions inside the city of 2 million people.

This could mean serious humanitarian problems if the fighting goes on within the city.

Already more than 60 per cent of the people in the city do not have drinking water since the pumping stations have been hit during fighting.

What does all this add up to? It is clear that the battle for Baghdad is not far away. US forces have carried out some of the fastest armour advance in history and this itself should be a destabilising factor along with the massive air strikes.

Ultimate victory of the Anglo-American forces should not be in doubt. But contrary to expectations, there have been no large-scale surrenders leave alone celebrations in towns and villages under Anglo-American control. If the final allied assault on Berlin in April 1945 is any indicator, we may yet see a similar tragedy unfolding in the coming days and weeks.