Once he had sewn up the loyalty of some 30 independent MLAs, it was a foregone conclusion that the new chief minister of Maharashtra, Narayan Rane, would win the vote of confidence in the Assembly. That the main opposition party, the Congress, did not press for a discussion or a division confirms that Rane used the two weeks since he was sworn in to skilfully plug holes in the alliance of the Shiv Sena, BJP and independents.
His jumbo cabinet of 47 ministers, including 10 independents, is the largest Maharashtra has ever seen and since there are few changes in the team he inherited from Manohar Joshi, he has given no cause for rebellion. With no troubled waters for the opposition to fish in, it was a smooth transition. The new chief minister will now have to give all his attention to the huge tasks that await him on the fiscal and law and order fronts.
He has said he intends to run a “people-oriented” government and will try to figure out why there is so much public disenchantment with the rulingcoalition. In the year before Maharashtra goes to the polls, therefore, a hard push can be expected behind the populist programmes which the Shiv Sena is already committed to as well as the announcement of new ones on similar lines. For Maharashtra this could prove a hazardous strategy unless Rane can somehow, miraculously, find major new sources of revenue.
He was revenue minister in the Joshi cabinet and still retains charge of that portfolio. No one is in a better position to attest to the accuracy of the Reserve Bank of India’s report on the perilous condition of the state’s finances. There has been an astounding 700 per cent increase in the revenue deficit in the current year over 1997-98.
Maharashtra comes off badly even by comparison with Bihar where the revenue deficit has risen by Rs 1,100 crore compared to Maharashtra’s Rs 4,621 crore rise. RBI figures and an earlier Crisil downgrade for the state prove something is seriously wrong and has been going wrong for some time.
Official claims thatthe increase in non-development expenditure of over Rs 6,000 crore is mainly due to pay commission pay hikes and high interest costs are hard to accept. It is disturbing that, despite the ill omens, the government is still considering a waiver of farmers’s power dues and hiking procurement prices. It is also prepared to offer tax breaks to some industrial sectors.
Serious belt-tightening and resource-raising will be needed in the next state budget to arrest Maharashtra’s slide into bankruptcy. Unfortunately for the state, such measures will inevitably court more unpopularity for the ruling coalition. Rane who has taken over in order to reverse the trend must nevertheless listen to the voices of prudence. If he is looking for quick results, he would do well to concentrate on improving law and order in Mumbai.
Here the problem is not financial constraints as much as the lack of clear and firm direction from the top. There is no end to the run of daylight shootings, mafia killings and the murder ofinnocents. Stern, impartial action is called for to bring down the high level of crime. Without that the coalition’s popularity ratings are unlikely to go up.