Bank stocks are losing their shine on stock markets. Bank scrips have witnessed a sustained fall over the last few days, with the combined market capitalisation of 19 public sector banks declining by 5 per cent, or Rs 3,500 crore to Rs 65,100 crore, in the last one month.
In the last one quarter, the M-cap plunged by 15 per cent, or nearly Rs 11,400 crore. Analysts have turned bearish on PSU banks, mainly due to the expected rise in interest rates.
In fact, banks which made huge treasury gains in recent years would not be able to generate profits from treasury gains in a rising interest rate regime.
SBI had issued a profit warning last week. SBI Chairman A.K. Purwar had said last week that the bank would take a knock on account of the depreciation in its Rs 1.85 lakh crore gilts portfolio. ‘‘This is a tough time for the bank. The yields have appreciated over 135 bps in the last three to four months, putting enormous pressure on the bottomline,’’ Purwar said.
The new RBI guidelines allow banks to offset their profitable gilts portfolio against the loss ones. But for this norms SBI would have lost Rs 2,200 crore from its G-sec portfolio in the year.
In a recent note, Morgan Stanley has noted that PSU banks will not be able to book any treasury gains in FY 2006. State-owned banks will also be affected by increased cost pressure.