President’s Rule looms over Bihar, numbers game on

Pandey today asked both the claimants to wait till Wednesday for the Election Commission to formally notify constituting of the assembly.

Ironically, a spell of President’s Rule may suit the NDA as well as the Congress — the NDA wants to stop the RJD at any cost and the Congress is deeply divided on the question of supporting the RJD once again, especially after fighting the elections on an anti-Laloo plank.

While a demand for letters of support flies in the face of the Bommai judgement of 1994 which stipulated that the majority issue be decided on the floor of the House, Government sources here pointed out that this has become a convention of sorts in a split verdict scenario. Maharashtra Governor P C Alexander did it, in 1995 and again in 1999, when no single party or alliance emerged with a clear majority.

More importantly, President K R Narayanan also followed this convention when he asked Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to produce letters of support for his first stint in 1998 after the BJP-led alliance stopped short of a majority. He gave the green signal to Vajpayee to form a minority government after Congress president Sonia Gandhi expressed her disinclination. Unfortunately, the polarisation in Bihar is so acute that neither the RJD nor the NDA may succeed in producing the letters.

While President’s Rule appeared to be a distinct possibility today, the numbers game was on in earnest in Bihar. NDA heavyweights Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan, George Fernandes and Digvijay Singh flew to Patna this morning for negotiations with the smaller parties and Independent MLAs who hold the key to the next government. They are targeting the JMM, which is unlikely to back the RJD, and around 15 odd Independents, many of whom are BJP and Samata rebels. Samata’s Bihar unit chief Raghunath Jha, a former Congressman, is also active, mainly to woo unhappy anti-Laloo Congress MLAs.

On the other side, Laloo is in regular touch with the Congress high command through Sitaram Kesri and Kapil Sibal, both of whom are pressing strongly for the party to revive its ties with the RJD. The party is, however, hopelessly divided on the issue, not just at the state level but here in Delhi as well.

One option before the Congress is to insist on joining the government in Bihar to bring the rebels around. Party general secretary in charge of Bihar, Mohsina Kidwai, will be flying to Patna tomorrow to discuss the issue with the newly-elected Congress MLAs. She is expected to get back to the Central leadership by evening after which the Working Committee is likely to meet informally to review the situation.

The Congress decision on Bihar, however, is inextricably tied up with the turmoil within the party after its dismal performance in the assembly polls. Certainly, the Sonia-baiters can be expected to stiffly resist any move to tie up with Laloo and they may veto any suggestion to give the RJD the required letter of support.

At the same time, any move to keep the newly-elected Bihar Assembly in suspended animation and impose President’s Rule will meet with strong opposition from the RJD and the Left parties and may throw up Constitutional questions, particularly since Parliament is in session. Official sources countered this by maintaining that it can be done since technically the Government has six months breathing space before it is required to seek parliamentary approval for using Article 356.