Peace this pipeline

It is an incontrovertible fact that our economic growth is critical for human development; and that access to energy at affordable costs is vital for that process. Given our current growth levels, it is obvious that our energy needs would continue to skyrocket. Compared to the import of a mere one-third of our oil consumption less than two decades ago, we are already importing more than two-thirds of our needs and this would touch a figure in excess of 90 per cent in the next decade. Our imports of natural gas are beginning to grow at a similarly high rate. The bulk of oil and natural gas resources of the world lie in the region to the west of us, beyond Pakistan. It is also a fact that the most economical method of transporting natural gas from Iran and Central Asia is by overland pipelines, especially when the end product is required in north and western India.

This is precisely why Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar is arguing for beginning a dialogue with Pakistan on the issue, as reported by the Sunday Express. There is no disputing that geography poses a serious challenge to ensuring an uninterrupted flow of oil and gas through Pakistan. The often fractious nature of India-Pakistan relations and the presence of terrorist groups in that country threatening to blow up pipelines doesn’t make things any easier. Many Pakistanis believe that they should not allow the transit of energy to India since it would strengthen their ‘enemy’ and many Indians feel that we cannot trust Pakistan and allow it a veto over our economic well-being. But this is the type of thinking that has been harming the interests of people on both sides of the border.

Of course there will be risks to the security of energy flows through overland pipelines. But offshore transportation by tankers and pipelines, too, carries its own share of risks. What is critical is not the likely risks, per se, but satisfactory measures to address them. Contrary to conventional wisdom, such measures can be instituted far more effectively in the case of overland pipelines, since Pakistan would have to enter into multinational agreements that include the producer country, international financial institutions, other transit countries like Afghanistan, and so on, besides establishing an international organisation to manage, monitor, inspect, maintain and repair such pipelines. Iran, for example, would have as much interest in ensuring that its gas reaches the large market in India uninterrupted as we would, in having it delivered safely. India and Pakistan need to look at the issue of energy pipelines in a broader and comprehensive manner. There can be no denying that they help build interdependence and create long-term stakes in peace for development in the region. The time is ripe, then, to initiate a serious dialogue towards this end.