Pakistan in world’s top 10 failed states, the region in top 25

These are the key findings of a new study by the US Foreign Policy magazine and the US-based Fund for Peace think-tank which ranked the nations on a failed-state index.

Pakistan moved from 34th last year to ninth in the new report—one of the sharpest changes in the overall score of any country.

Contributing factors: Pakistan’s inability to police the tribal areas near the Afghan border, the devastating earthquake last October in Kashmir and rising ethnic tensions, the report said.

Each country was given a score based on data from numerous available sources. A “failing state” was scored based on 12 indicators: demographic pressure, refugees, group grievance, human flight, uneven development, economy, delegitimization of state, public services, human rights, security apparatus, factionalized elites and external influences.

Judged according to these criteria, states range from the most failed, Sudan, to the least, Norway.

Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan are rated 18th, 19th, 20th, 25th and 39th respectively.

The top 60 positions in the list were occupied almost exclusively by African, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries.

According to the review, the situation in Iraq (No. 4) and Afghanistan (No. 10) deteriorated since 2005, the first year the survey was taken.

“For Iraq, the index category that worsened most was human flight,” the report said. “The exodus of Iraq’s professional class has accelerated, leaving the country without the trained citizens it needs to staff important posts.”

In terms of available human resources, Afghanistan faces a somewhat different problem from Iraq, the report said. It pointed out that while educated Afghan exiles have been slow to return following the fall of the Taliban in 2001, overwhelmingly poor Afghan refugees have returned in large numbers from Iran and Pakistan.

The study debunks the notion that steady growth rates in China are making the country more stable. It found that China lost ground last year. Pauline Baker, president of the Fund for Peace, said in an interview that the major factors behind China’s vulnerability are inequality and corruption, which, she said, led to about 87,000 peasant protests last year. Foreign Policy senior editor David Bosco said China is made up of the booming coastal region, and the interior, which has been left behind. “There is a lot of discontent. The government is aware of the problem,” he said. Baker said India has greater social mobility and is more decentralized than China, possibly giving that country the upper hand over its more populous neighbour over the long haul.

Among countries that lost considerable ground last year in the survey’s “index of instability,” besides China and Pakistan, were Zimbabwe (“poor governance and endemic corruption) and Nigeria (“regional and religious fissures”).

On the plus side, high oil prices have helped Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez solidify power and stabilize the country, the report said. Others registering significant gains were the Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Bosnia. With AP