KARACHI, JULY 13: Pakistan stocks staged another rally on Tuesday on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s call for peace with India, but equities analysts said the euphoria would die down once investors started focusing on the economy again. The Pakistan rupee also improved 15 paise to 53.80 rupees against the dollar in the kerb market as money changers said the halt to hostilities in Kashmir improved the supply of dollars.
Equities analysts said domestic buying could push the index up to the 1,300-point level but any moves beyond that would require improved economic fundamentals and resolution of a lingering power sector row. "To actually break out of this band, into a higher level of valuation, would depend on further improvement in fundamentals," said Abid Naqvi, research head at brokers Taurus Securities.
The Karachi 100-share index was up 15.52 points or 1.36 percent at 1,155.17 points in late morning trade after climbing more than 5 per cent on Monday. Dealers said the morning buying was inspired by aspeech on Monday night from Sharif, who renewed an offer of peace talks with India to ease tensions created by a two-month military showdown over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.
Naqvi said the tension over Kashmir had damaged Pakistan’s efforts to rehabilitate its economy. "Nobody is watching the economy. In fact, if anything this operation has had a damaging effect," he said. Arshad Arif, research head at First Capital ABN AMRO Equities, said the arrival of an International Monetary Fund mission next month to assess progress on economic reforms would also determine the market’s movement.
"Investors are jittery about Pakistan’s budget targets and will remain away until they actually see an economic recovery taking place," he said. Pakistan has forecast a leap in tax revenue in 1999/2000 (July-June) to Rs 356 billion ($ 6.91 billion), up from an actual 305 billion the previous year. It has also set a 5 percent gross domestic product growth target, up from 3.1 per cent.
Naqvi said a tariff rowbetween Hub Power Company, a market leader on the Karachi Stock Exchange, and state-utility WAPDA would block the market’s rise. Hubco and WAPDA are yet to resume talks on their year-old row over tariffs after a series of talks in May produced no result.