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Journalism of Courage
Public opinion was divided in the House about opinion polls. Both Mukul, my Man Friday, and Naveen, my driver, were categorical that banning them would be unhealthy for democracy, particularly when opinion polls and exit polls have become a source of entertainment in the rural countryside 8212; by being way off the mark!
Having never voted in my life, I felt that opinion polls on television gave me 8216;8216;empowerment8217;8217; 8212; an impression that I was also one among the millions who joined long queues in the searing heat to cast my vote and elect a new government. The poll discussions are impressive 8212; with the sets, the backdrop and the expert pompously telling me which way I would vote and why.
But politicians may not be human but they can be foolish. More so when they are at each other8217;s throats on national television as if the results are already out. As a regular TV election addict, I would want to know whether I am suffering from the same ailments as million of other voters. A common disease in every election, apparently incurable, is anti-incumbency. Again, while it may occur in Andhra Pradesh, it may not in Karnataka or vice versa.
Rather than prolong a debate about opinion polls, I commissioned my own poll. The question 8212; should opinion polls and exit polls be banned?
8216;8216;Kneel-son8217;8217;, a leading pollster, had this to say. 8216;8216;Our survey, the largest-ever covering 500 Lok Sabha constituencies, has revealed that there is a pro-opinion poll wave in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. In Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Haryana, there is anti-opinion poll wave building up. As of now, the country is overwhelmingly in favour of opinion polls subject to a margin of error of three per cent.8217;8217;
Others had their own views. Leading pollster 8216;8216;ARW-Gee8217;8217; felt that opinion polls, according to their own survey, had a bandwagon effect. As of now, they said opinion is divided; 40 per cent want opinion polls, 35 per cent do not want it and the rest cannot decide. In the coming days, we need to watch 8216;8216;the cannot decide8217;8217;. A mere two per cent swing could tilt the balance.
8216;8216;She voter8217;8217; said the last opinion polls conducted by his agency indicated that the number of those who can8217;t decide has only increased. He said his survey was conducted after the 8216;8216;Kneel-son8217;8217; and 8216;8216;ARW-Gee8217;8217; surveys and therefore indicated a trend. He said with the number of undecided increasing, it is time they decided why they cannot decide about what they have to decide. 8216;8216;She voter8217;8217; felt that opinion polls were the only way out.
8216;8216;If you are also convinced, why don8217;t you write to the Election Commission,8217;8217; asked Mukul.
8216;8216;That I have already done.8217;8217; I replied triumphantly. 8216;8216;I have also suggested that with hundreds of crores being spent on elections, security of candidates and so on, why not employ three or four independent pollsters to do poll surveys every election year. The results could be declared with a margin of error of three per cent and elections avoided altogether.8217;8217;
