This may be the Big One, bigger than Vietnam, far more scary than the Cuban missile crisis. In fact, this is scarier than scary can get: India and Pakistan will be at war in just about three weeks if US fails the defusing test, Indian missiles with conventional warheads will head for Pakistan whose army, unable to figure out what’s headed their way, will respond with nuclear-tipped missiles. An all-out nuclear war is a distinct possibility.As all the Bush’s men rush in to separate South Asia’s troublesome two, the US media, struck by terror of the Indo-Pak kind, have begun beaming home chilling accounts of a likely N-war in the offing.So ahead of doomsday, if you are to go by a USA Today report, an American government team is already in India to ‘‘plan the possible evacuation’’ of not just 1,000 American troops stationed in Pakistan but upto 63,000 US citizens from the two countries.While he stopped short of going into details of contingency plans, Bush today confirmed there were moves afoot for the safe passage of US citizens should the need arise. But diplomatic circles in New Delhi also read in the Bush statement a clear message to India and Pakistan that raising the pitch was in nobody’s interest. The US, they felt, was going to go the extra mile to cool tempers. USA Today, quoting an unnamed Pentagon official ‘‘with access to plans,’’ reported that evacuation plans were being drawn by the US Pacific Command and State Department. When it happens, the airlift will ‘‘dwarf’’ the 1975 evacuation of Americans from Vietnam.Another Pentagon official was quoted as saying that the flare-up had ‘‘stalled the hunt’’ for al Qaeda members and that the Pakistanis were not doing much to track down Osama bin Laden. Musharraf’s spokesman Maj Gen Rashid Qureshi had also made it known that ‘‘a lot’’ of troops had been moved to the Indian border.ABC-TV said India had armed its missiles with non-nuclear warheads. But what was worrying US officials, it said, was that the Pakistanis would have no idea of the missile-type launched by India and this ‘‘could lead to a horrible miscalculation.’’In its report fearing the Big One, ABC News wove in Pakistan UN Ambassador Munir Akram’s chilling remark that if they were to give up first-use of nuclear arms, it would give India a ‘‘license to kill’’ his people. The report noted ‘‘there is little doubt’’ that Indian military might, double in size and more advanced, would defeat Pakistan in a conventional fight.Analyst George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace was quoted as describing the situation as ‘‘very hairy business that makes the Cuban missile crisis potentially look like child’s play.’’The NBC-TV had more or less the same story: India had armed its medium-range missiles with warheads and war could break out in three weeks unless the US intervened with extraordinary steps such as sending Rumsfeld to the region. This report too spoke of plans being drawn for a massive evacuation of American and allied nationals in the event of war.According to NBC, some 2,50,000 people would have to be pulled to safety.The strategic balance between India and Pakistan is back under the scanner. The Washington-based CSIS pegs India’s nuclear missile strength at 60 while the Federation of American Scientists says Pakistan possesses 25 N-missiles.
