Obuchi’s death may sway coming polls in ruling party’s favou

TOKYO, MAY 15: Even before the cremation of former Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, speculation mounted on Monday that Japan’s ruling party may try to exploit his death in general elections expected June 25. Obuchi, who died on Sunday, only really captured the hearts of Japanese people when he collapsed with a stroke on April 2 and fell quickly into a coma with brain damage. But much of the press praised him Monday as the architect of Japan’s recovery from the brink of economic collapse. Analysts forecast that his powerful Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may seek to take advantage of the drama in elections, which Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori is expected to announce soon.

“It is certain that the LDP will take advantage of his death,” said Ritsumeikan University’s political science professor Fukuji Taguchi. “But its impact on how the LDP is going to do in this election is unclear given that there are many pressing economic, social and political issues concerning voters,” he added.

Voters in Obuchi’s native Gunma district, North of Tokyo, may go for the LDP in sympathy, said Taguchi, but most people would place greater priority on the economy. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics since its formation in 1955, is almost certain to win more votes than other parties, but the question is whether it will lose or gain seats. The LDP holds 267 of the 500 seats in the lower house which are up for grabs in the coming elections. That stranglehold is supplemented by its allies; the Buddhist backed Komeito party which holds 48 seats and the Conservative Party with another 20.

In fact the less powerful upper house, where elections are not due for two more years, is more critical for the LDP because it currently has to rely on its partners to maintain control there. But the lower house elections are being seen as a vote of confidence in Obuchi’s successor, Yoshiro Mori, and the party as a whole.