Numbers failed BJP on the day of reckoning

Invited for a second round of consultations with the President, leaders of the BJP combine told Narayanan that in the present situation, the best option was to get the people’s verdict through mid-term polls. They urged him to take a decision (on dissolving the Lok Sabha) as quickly as possible.There is speculation that BJP leaders got their wires crossed. Yesterday, when political circles were buzzing with rumours that the number of breakaway Congress MPs was swelling, Advani told journalists that mid-term elections were the only option; but the party’s prime ministerial candidate Atal Behari Vajpayee still talked of the BJP’s bright chances of being able to form an alternative government.

The BJP speaking in different voices could have scared off potential supporters who were already nervous of taking such a big step. If the gamble failed, the MPs would have been outcasts in their own party at a time when elections were staring them in the face.

Advani admitted this evening that the BJP did not have proof of 40 Congress MPs being willing to desert that party. “We were not asked for proof,” he said. “Our effort was not a failure,” he added — a tacit admission that the BJP had been trying to split the Congress. “It showed the state of the Congress party. I was shocked. I never expected so many Congress MPs to side with us.”

He also said he was “astounded” by the Congress’s accusation that the BJP and its allies were indulging in horsetrading. “Elections will give a better opportunity for realignments at the grass-roots level,” Advani said when asked about the BJP’s earlier claim that realignments were in the pipeline — that MPs from the Congress as well as other parties were in touch with them.

Three days ago, when the BJP combine had met the President, they had informed him the Congress was likely to split and support the BJP. Many Congress MPs felt that their party leadership had erred by supporting the United Front instead of the BJP in May last year and they should be given an opportunity to rectify that mistake, they had told Narayanan.

At that time, Narayanan had indicated that a legal split (one-third of the party’s strength in the Lok Sabha) would be necessary. The BJP was hoping that if the Congress did split, the remaining 30-odd MPs needed to give it a simple majority in the Lok Sabha would gravitate towards the BJP. The party was pinning its hopes on MPs burning desire to avoid elections.