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This is an archive article published on September 27, 1998

"No industrialist has told us we are delaying things"

No, he doesn't have any figures to prove his critics wrong, but Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha remains convinced that the beleaguered ec...

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No, he doesn’t have any figures to prove his critics wrong, but Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha remains convinced that the beleaguered economy is on a revival path, that there’s an air of optimism being exuded by most players, and that his earlier prediction that things would turn around in September is very much on. More surprising, for his critics, of course, is Sinha’s assertion that the Government is well on track with its decision-making, that policies on economic reforms are on schedule, and that no industrialist has complained of any delays in clearance of proposals. Mention the sad case of the Tata Airlines, and he’ll tell you that this is just one episode, and here too, the Tatas were in a tearing hurry. Excerpts from an interview with Sunil Jain:

We’re now into September. Do you still believe that the economy is picking up?
Both internally as well as externally, things look much better than the dark days at the beginning of the year. What dampened the feel-good factor was largelythe international perception that things would become difficult for India after the nuclear tests; the Budget was also considered to be a disaster of its own kind. When I talked of September, (I calculated that) the Budget provisions would have started coming in and would create their own momentum. And the deepening crisis in East Asia, Russia and Latin America has also resulted in the international perception of India going up.

What about growth?
Despite the floods, this year’s agriculture growth is going to be 4 per cent, and this also means more demand last year we had negative growth. Trade and industry have also told me that they can see rural demand picking up. This should give us an overall growth of around 6.5 per cent. That requires a big spurt now. I’m seeing it happening. Investment is also happening with both domestic and foreign investors saying that India looks stable.

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You talk of a feel-good factor, but there’s a feeling that the Government is not stable, is hamstrung andcannot clear projects. There’s the case of the Tata Airlines. You were pushing for foreign insurance.
Tata is just one, can you think of another? We’ve done the counter-guarantees, the financial closure of the power projects which is taking place won’t be a big media event, but work is going on. A group of ministers is looking at insurance. We’ll come with the Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) Bill in the winter session, we’re well on time. Foreign insurance is under discussion. I’m talking to a lot of foreign insurance companies, and no one seems as concerned about the delays as we seem to be.

Your government appears to be fighting a losing battle on subsidies. Your colleague V. Ramamurthy said some days ago that the Government had not decided on LPG/kerosene subsidies despite the fact that the previous government had committed to a phaseout plan. Fertiliser subsidies are also going up again.
Previous governments have taken views on subsidies, and successive governments have not agreedwith them. We have not accepted the petroleum subsidy decision in toto. Fertiliser prices are a sensitive issue and all governments have found it difficult to phase out these.

There is a perception that this government is not able to get too many things working. Look at the CVC ordinance. The feeling is that the Government is under a lot of pressure…
That’s very wrong. On the economic front, we’ve done a lot, I announced this at the Economic Editors’ Conference. We compare well with anyone, including the Narasimha Rao one in its first six months. You see, my Budget got caught up in small things urea rollback, petrol price fiasco, more rollbacks in the Finance Bill…It is natural for the media to project things (like) Bezbaruah, that he was transferred and then brought back. The shortcomings get more hype than the achievements.

But the feeling is that the Government is under siege.
No, I interact with a lot of people and this is not true anymore. It was so in the beginning. There isno fear about the stability of the Government anymore. Now, even if there are reports that the Akalis are opposing something, or someone is opposing something else, it doesn’t cause the same fear as in the past, because we have cried wolf so many times in the past.

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So many things are stuck with your colleagues. In company affairs, for example, a large number of proposals for inter-corporate investments are stuck.
What proposals? I keep hearing of this, but no one has come forward with specific cases.

ITC wanted to invest in ITC Classic, Reliance in a company for a port and power plant. There are about 80 such cases.
I’m interacting with all these companies, the PM has constituted a panel which has these very people. Mukesh Ambani was present at this meeting, he never brought it up. Are they going to newspaper offices and complaining? No one has come to me. They talk to me of Tata Airlines, why don’t they talk of this? Why didn’t they raise it with the PM, if there was someunconscionable delay?

What is the Government’s view on the Tata case?
We have made our position clear that the Tatas acted in a hurry. They were not prepared to wait for six weeks. We are not to blame for the fact that they had to wait for so many months with the previous government. There were issues which needed to be resolved and the Civil Aviation Minister has explained. One Tata withdrawing its proposal is being projected as the whole heaven falling down. What happened in the Enron case? We renegotiated with them and the same Enron is saying we’ll invest $10 billion. The Tatas are free to bring their proposal back.

Do you feel that the Government is doing a good job?
There is no feeling in the Government that we are unable to perform, that we are not moving forward, that we are not able to take decisions. And this is a feeling that is shared by a large number of people, including Indian and foreign investors.
In your interaction with industrialists, did they share your viewthat we’ll have a 6.5 per cent growth, or were they pessimistic?
I didn’t go around asking if they shared my view. I tell them what I have to tell them. I spent an hour and a half with investors at Economist magazine’s seminar for investors, and no one said this growth is unachievable. Most investors are agreeing that India is a very good destination, they’re complimenting India on its policies, that it’s been able to avoid the meltdown in other countries. The risk premia, or spreads, on Indian paper are the lowest for all developing countries, including China. This is what gives the feel-good factor.

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